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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11(10), 10587-10605; doi:10.3390/ijerph111010587

Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea

1
Hydroclimatic Statistical Research Group, Centre Eau Terre Environnement, INRS, Québec, QC G1K 9A9, Canada
2
Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 402-751, Korea
3
Columbia Water Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
4
Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
5
Water Environment Research Department, Water Quality Assessment Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research, Incheon 404-708, Korea
6
Water Resources Research Division, Water Resources and Environment Research Department, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do 411-712, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 14 August 2014 / Revised: 18 September 2014 / Accepted: 6 October 2014 / Published: 15 October 2014
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Abstract

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001–2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: malaria; climate change; PCA-regression analysis; climate variable malaria; climate change; PCA-regression analysis; climate variable
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Kwak, J.; Noh, H.; Kim, S.; Singh, V.P.; Hong, S.J.; Kim, D.; Lee, K.; Kang, N.; Kim, H.S. Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 10587-10605.

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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health EISSN 1660-4601 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
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