Next Article in Journal
Adventive Vertebrates and Historical Ecology in the Pre-Columbian Neotropics
Next Article in Special Issue
The Brazilian Pampa: A Fragile Biome
Previous Article in Journal
Mine Spoil Prairies Expand Critical Habitat for Endangered and Threatened Amphibian and Reptile Species
Previous Article in Special Issue
Polymorphisms within the Toll-Like Receptor (TLR)-2, -4, and -6 Genes in Cattle
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessReview
Diversity 2009, 1(2), 133-150; doi:10.3390/d1020133

Forecasting Extinctions: Uncertainties and Limitations

School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK
Department of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Viçosa, Viçosa, Brazil
Received: 13 October 2009 / Accepted: 14 November 2009 / Published: 26 November 2009
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Biodiversity Feature Papers)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [272 KB, uploaded 27 November 2009]   |  


Extinction forecasting is one of the most important and challenging areas of conservation biology. Overestimates of extinction rates or the extinction risk of a particular species instigate accusations of hype and overblown conservation rhetoric. Conversely, underestimates may result in limited resources being allocated to other species/habitats perceived as being at greater risk. In this paper I review extinction models and identify the key sources of uncertainty for each. All reviewed methods which claim to estimate extinction probabilities have severe limitations, independent of if they are based on ecological theory or on rather subjective expert judgments.
Keywords: extinction; uncertainty; forecasting; local extinction; viability extinction; uncertainty; forecasting; local extinction; viability
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Ladle, R.J. Forecasting Extinctions: Uncertainties and Limitations. Diversity 2009, 1, 133-150.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics



[Return to top]
Diversity EISSN 1424-2818 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top