Next Article in Journal
Strategies for Development and Improvement of the Urban Fabric: A Vienna Case Study
Previous Article in Journal
Micro-Scale Variability of Air Temperature within a Local Climate Zone in Berlin, Germany, during Summer
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Climate 2018, 6(1), 6; doi:10.3390/cli6010006

Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

1
European Commission—Joint Research Centre, 21027 Ispra, Italy
2
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4PS, UK
3
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 21 December 2017 / Revised: 11 January 2018 / Accepted: 15 January 2018 / Published: 24 January 2018
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [6382 KB, uploaded 24 January 2018]   |  

Abstract

Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood risk assessment; Paris Agreement; climate impacts; global warming; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 flood risk assessment; Paris Agreement; climate impacts; global warming; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Supplementary material

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Betts, R.; Salamon, P.; Feyen, L. Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming. Climate 2018, 6, 6.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Climate EISSN 2225-1154 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top