1. Introduction
Agriculture plays an important role in the global gross domestic product (GDP) and provides employment for 1.3 billion people (i.e., 22% of the world’s population). In many developing countries, increasing agricultural production has been one of the most important priorities for agricultural development programs [
1]. Agriculture is the most important economic sectors in Iran and is highly dependent on climate. The impact of global climatic change on agriculture, and especially precipitation and temperature variability (PTV), has recently become an issue of increasing importance. Drought, lower precipitation and higher temperatures are the most costly natural disasters in Iran. Iran has experienced 27 drought occurrences in the past 40 years [
2,
3]. While some aspects of climate change, such as increased precipitation, may bring localized benefits, there will also be a range of adverse impacts including reduced water availability, more frequent extreme weather events, and lower productivity of some crops, resulting in the reduction of farmers’ income [
4,
5]. PTV will be followed by economic shocks on prices, supply, demand, trade, comparative advantages, and consumers’ and producers’ welfare [
6]. Hence, farmers need to apprehend the impact of PTV and the scope of adaptation strategies in paddy fields.
According to Udmale et al. [
7], many of the environmental impacts, such as increases in average atmospheric temperature, were perceived by most farmers, and these perceptions are formed and reinforced through both everyday experiences and various outside sources. A better understanding of farmers’ perceptions on PTV, their ongoing adaptation measures, and other related factors is important for informing policies that are aimed at promoting successful adaptations in the agricultural sector [
8,
9]. Farm practices are modified in response to various external triggers such as new market opportunities or failures, and also in response to PTV [
10].
Adaptation is one policy option for alleviating the negative impacts of PTV at the farm level. Economic constraints and barriers to adaptation such as social acceptance, workload, biodiversity, and many others limit farmers’ adaptation. These actions include strategies such as alterations in crop management (e.g., planting dates or crop varieties), land use, and land management (e.g., fallowing, irrigation and water harvesting, soil and water conservation measures, or tillage practices) and livelihood strategies (e.g., change in the mix of crops or livestock produced, combination of farm and nonfarm activities, or temporary or permanent migration) [
9,
11,
12]. One important issue in agricultural adaptation to PTV is the manner in which farmers update their expectations of the future climate in response to unusual weather patterns [
13]. Another important issue related to adaptation in agriculture is how perceptions of PTV are translated into agricultural decisions. If farmers learn gradually about the change in precipitation and temperature, they will also learn gradually about the best techniques and adaptation options available. Farmers learn about the best adaptation options in three ways: (1) learning by doing; (2) learning by copying; and (3) learning from instruction [
14]. Adaptation to PTV refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities [
15].
Supplying more than 70% of human caloric intake in some countries and over 30% in Asia, rice (
Oryzasativa) is one of the most important agricultural crops in the world. Iran together with India, Pakistan, Korea, China, Taiwan, and Thailand are some of the main rice-producing countries in Asia. In Iran, it is typically consumed at least once a day as part of the main meal and is the second main source of calories after wheat. The highest concentration of rice production in Iran is in the three northern provinces of Guilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan. Guilan province is the main rice-growing area in Iran and is one of the provinces that have attracted much attention regarding its agricultural products, especially rice [
16,
17]. Annually importing 1.7 Mt rice, Iran is the second largest rice importer after the Philippines. Therefore, efforts are immediately required to increase rice production [
18]. Rice cultivation in Guilan—due to its higher water requirements, compared to other cereals—has been severely affected by PTV in recent years.
Guilan province is highly exposed to natural disasters as well as the potential impact of PTV. Climatic factors such as PTV could affect the paddy fields and are a major challenge to agricultural development. Although Guilan farmers have a low capacity to adapt to such changes, they have survived and adapted in various ways over time. A better understanding of how they have coped and how they perceive PTVis essential in creating incentives to enhance farm-level adaptation. The goal of PTV perception and adaptation strategies is to enhance communities’ resilience towards various changes in their natural environment. Resilience is the capacity to maintain competent functioning in the face of major life stressors. A better understanding of farmers’ ongoing adaptation measures and their perception toward PTV could not only improve policies and management decisions, but also increase the farm households’ ability to adapt [
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17,
18,
19].
Reliable statistics indicate that Guilan province will face severe water shortage and drought in the future, and these problems, more than anything, will affect rice production [
20]. In recent years, a number of studies have been conducted to assess farmers’ attitudes, perception, and adaptation strategies to PTV. However, due to different study areas, results vary.
Table 1 summarizes some related studies conducted over the past 10 years and their main results proposed by researchers such as Abid et al. [
21], Jianjun et al. [
9], Yu et al. [
22], Smithet al. [
23], Rogé et al. [
24], Arbuckle Jr. et al. [
25], Amdu et al. [
26], Nizam [
27], Nastis et al. [
28], Sofoluwe et al. [
29], Smith and Olesen [
12], Tologbonse et al. [
30], Deressa et al. [
14], and Hassan and Nhemachena [
31].
The main aim of this study was to identify the paddy farmers’ understanding of precipitation and temperature changes, how it impacts their farming, and their coping and adaptation strategies in Rasht County of Guilan province. In particular, this study was designed to meet the following objectives: (1) to describe the sociodemographic characteristics of paddy farmers; (2) to characterize their perception of precipitation and temperature changes; (3) to identify adaptation measures for precipitation and temperature changes; and (4) to determine the relationship between farmers’ perception of precipitation and temperature changes and their sociodemographic characteristics. The next section provides a background of the case study area followed by a brief presentation of applied methodology, while data collection information is also outlined. Afterwards, summary statistics and a brief discussion of the findings are presented, ensued by the results of the bivariate analysis. Finally, the paper concludes. Below,
Figure 1 briefly presents the general methodological framework of data collection, statistical analysis, and obtained results.
4. Conclusions
A very important outcome of this study is that questionnaire results regarding PTV are in complete agreement with the actual empirical data indicating that farmers’ perceptions are valid (
Table 2 and
Figure 3 and
Figure 4). This is very important for developing successful adaptation strategies. Being dependent on natural resources, rice production in Rasht County is particularly vulnerable to PTV. Hence, perception of adaptation measures to PTV is a very important issue. Adaptation to PTV has been an important research topic, especially in agriculture, ever since PTV has been commonly recognized [
40]. The present study is a preliminary effort to assess paddy farmers’ perception of PTV and adaptation strategies in Rasht County, Guilan province, Iran. In this study, first the literature on related subjects was examined and classified, and then the primary framework based on 15 statements for farmers’ perception of PTV and 18 statements for their adaptation strategies were proposed.
Among the key findings of the research analysis are the following: (1) Paddy farmers of Rasht County are aware of the increase in temperature and the decline in precipitation. This result is contrary to the research results reported by Tologbonse et al. [
30], Sofoluwe et al. [
29] and Amdu et al. [
26]. On the other hand, Ogalleh et al. [
41], Oluwatusin [
42], Shameem et al. [
43], Devkota [
44], and Falaki et al. [
45] revealed that farmers appear to be well aware of PTV, which is quite similar to our findings; (2) A diversity of adaptation strategies was employed by the Rasht County paddy farmers to counteract the impacts of PTV. Farmers are fully aware of possible adaptation options and strongly agree with planting of early-maturing, drought- and flood-tolerant varieties, reduction of water loss through irrigation canals, and agricultural insurance. The assessed adaptation strategies by Abid et al. [
21], Fosu-Mensah et al. [
46], Paudel et al. [
47], and Oluwatusin [
35] can be compared to the most important adaptation strategies assessed in the current paper; (3) assessment of adaptation options of Rasht County paddy farmers explicitly indicated that the farming community had tried to counteract the impact of PTV by employing local adaptation strategies; (4) a positive relationship was found between farm size and farmers’ perception of PTV; (5) a positive relationship was found between household income and farmers’ perception of PTV.
Farmers with larger farms can use multiple cropping and can integrate a livestock component, especially under dry-land conditions, to increase their income. Large farm sizes allow farmers to spread the risks of loss associated with changes in precipitation and temperature. The possibility of a reduction in water resources is a major threat in the paddy fields due to alterations in hydrologic cycles and changes in water availability, so most adaptation strategies in Rasht paddy fields are related to water and irrigation management. Some strategies here are suggested according to farmers’ awareness of the impacts of PTV and appropriate adaptation strategies are proposed in order to increase rice quality and quantity in paddy fields.
According to farmers’ tendency to grow varieties resistant to environmental conditions, it is recommended that research institutes study and report these varieties to farmers and farmers cultivate these crops with more confidence.
Regarding adaptation to PTV, it was found that paddy farmers who had farmed in years with more variable weather conditions had a higher tendency to use agricultural insurance, so it is suggested that the government implement comprehensive insurance of agricultural products to protect farmers against changing weather conditions.
Consequently, this study may provide interesting and initial observations and, in addition, it demonstrates verifiability. However, as a first systematic attempt to explore farmers’ attitudes towards PTV and their adaptation strategies in paddy fields, our study was limited to a rather small region and a rather restrained amount of time for the observations. Therefore, any attempt to generalize our results should be done very carefully. Nevertheless, the observations made in this study provide a starting point for further research, which could extend the investigation to a more representative sample. For example, an interesting subject for further research is to extend the questionnaire and the analysis outside the study area to include more general climate change impacts.
Conclusively, taking into account the great importance of PTV as a principal change driver in agricultural areas, as well as the great contribution of the agricultural sector in the gross domestic product of the country, a study understanding farmers’ perceptions and adaptation can prove extremely valuable. However, the results presented here are also great sources of information for policy makers and extension workers internationally. In particular, an extra purpose of this research is to assist policy makers, program planners, and extension and community workers to understand, implement, and promote developmental strategies in their respective countries. So, lessons learned here could well have resonance in many other countries well beyond the Rasht County in Guilan Province.