Next Article in Journal
Pair-Copula Constructions for Financial Applications: A Review
Next Article in Special Issue
Testing for the Equality of Integration Orders of Multiple Series
Previous Article in Journal
Social Networks and Choice Set Formation in Discrete Choice Models
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Econometrics 2016, 4(4), 41; doi:10.3390/econometrics4040041

Oil Price and Economic Growth: A Long Story?

1
Department of Applied Economics, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza 50006, Spain
2
Directorate General Economics, Statistics and Research, Bank of Spain, Madrid 28045, Spain
3
Department of Economic Analysis, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza 50006, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Pierre Perron
Received: 30 August 2016 / Revised: 30 September 2016 / Accepted: 7 October 2016 / Published: 28 October 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Unit Roots and Structural Breaks)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [440 KB, uploaded 28 October 2016]   |  

Abstract

This study investigates changes in the relationship between oil prices and the US economy from a long-term perspective. Although neither of the two series (oil price and GDP growth rates) presents structural breaks in mean, we identify different volatility periods in both of them, separately. From a multivariate perspective, we do not observe a significant effect between changes in oil prices and GDP growth when considering the full period. However, we find a significant relationship in some subperiods by carrying out a rolling analysis and by investigating the presence of structural breaks in the multivariate framework. Finally, we obtain evidence, by means of a time-varying VAR, that the impact of the oil price shock on GDP growth has declined over time. We also observe that the negative effect is greater at the time of large oil price increases, supporting previous evidence of nonlinearity in the relationship. View Full-Text
Keywords: oil price; business cycle; structural breaks oil price; business cycle; structural breaks
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Gadea, M.D.; Gómez-Loscos, A.; Montañés, A. Oil Price and Economic Growth: A Long Story? Econometrics 2016, 4, 41.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Econometrics EISSN 2225-1146 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top