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ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2017, 6(4), 115; doi:10.3390/ijgi6040115

Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

1
enviroSPACE Lab., Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, UNI VOGT, 66 Bd Carl Vogt, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
2
Forel Institute, University of Geneva, UNI VOGT, 66 Bd Carl Vogt, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Qiming Zhou and Wolfgang Kainz
Received: 30 December 2016 / Revised: 31 March 2017 / Accepted: 5 April 2017 / Published: 11 April 2017
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Abstract

We use Bayesian methods with a weights of evidence approach to model the probability of land use change over the Western part of Switzerland. This first model is followed by a cellular automata model for spatial allocation of land use classes. Our results extend and enhance current land use scenarios studies by applying Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EG) to a study area comprising of the upper Rhone river basin in the Cantons of Vaud and Valais. In order to take into account the topography, we divide the study area into four regions, based on their altitude and administrative region. We show that the different regions are affected in differing ways by the same driving forces. We analyse possible outcomes in land use change in 2050 for three different scenarios: “business as usual”, “liberalisation” and a “lowered agriculture production”. The “business-as-usual” scenario results indicate a decrease in agriculture, mostly in extensive agriculture, with a share in the total area of 12.3% in 2009 decreasing by 3.3% in 2050. Losses expected under a “business-as-usual” scenario in agriculture, are mostly due to the conversion to shrubland and forest. Further losses in extensive agriculture are expected under the “liberalisation” scenario, decreasing by 10.3 % in 2050. Along with a marked increase in the closed and open forest area, increasing from 27.1% in 2009 to 42.3% by 2050. Gains in open land habitat with the increase of the share of extensive agriculture area under the “lowered agricultural production” scenario are expected to increase by 3.2% in 2050, while the share of intensive agriculture area is expected to decrease by 5.6%. View Full-Text
Keywords: modelling framework; land use change scenarios; spatial dynamic modelling; Switzerland; Dinamica EGO modelling framework; land use change scenarios; spatial dynamic modelling; Switzerland; Dinamica EGO
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Gago-Silva, A.; Ray, N.; Lehmann, A. Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2017, 6, 115.

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