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Information 2017, 8(4), 126; doi:10.3390/info8040126

A Novel Grey Prediction Model Combining Markov Chain with Functional-Link Net and Its Application to Foreign Tourist Forecasting

1
College of Management & College of Tourism, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China
2
Department of Business Administration, Chung Yuan Christian University, Taoyuan 32023, Taiwan
3
School of Economics and Management, Dalian Ocean University, Dalian 116023, China
4
Department of Business Management, National Taipei University of Technology, Taipei 10608, Taiwan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 31 August 2017 / Revised: 29 September 2017 / Accepted: 3 October 2017 / Published: 13 October 2017
(This article belongs to the Section Information Systems)
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Abstract

Grey prediction models for time series have been widely applied to demand forecasting because only limited data are required for them to build a time series model without any statistical assumptions. Previous studies have demonstrated that the combination of grey prediction with neural networks helps grey prediction perform better. Some methods have been presented to improve the prediction accuracy of the popular GM(1,1) model by using the Markov chain to estimate the residual needed to modify a predicted value. Compared to the previous Grey-Markov models, this study contributes to apply the functional-link net to estimate the degree to which a predicted value obtained from the GM(1,1) model can be adjusted. Furthermore, the troublesome number of states and their bounds that are not easily specified in Markov chain have been determined by a genetic algorithm. To verify prediction performance, the proposed grey prediction model was applied to an important grey system problem—foreign tourist forecasting. Experimental results show that the proposed model provides satisfactory results compared to the other Grey-Markov models considered. View Full-Text
Keywords: grey prediction; neural network; genetic algorithm; Markov chain; tourist forecasting grey prediction; neural network; genetic algorithm; Markov chain; tourist forecasting
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Hu, Y.-C.; Jiang, P.; Chiu, Y.-J.; Tsai, J.-F. A Novel Grey Prediction Model Combining Markov Chain with Functional-Link Net and Its Application to Foreign Tourist Forecasting. Information 2017, 8, 126.

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