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Challenges 2014, 5(1), 1-25; doi:10.3390/challe5010001
Article

How China’s Options Will Determine Global Warming

1,* , 2
 and 3
Received: 25 October 2013; in revised form: 12 December 2013 / Accepted: 13 December 2013 / Published: 30 December 2013
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Challenges in Alternative Energy)
Download PDF [5045 KB, uploaded 30 December 2013]
Abstract: Carbon dioxide emissions, global average temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and surface ocean mixed layer acidity are extrapolated using analyses calibrated against extensive time series data for nine global regions. Extrapolation of historical trends without policy-driven limitations has China responsible for about half of global CO2 emissions by the middle of the twenty-first century. Results are presented for three possible actions taken by China to limit global average temperature increase to levels it considers to be to its advantage: (1) Help develop low-carbon energy technology broadly competitive with unbridled carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels; (2) Entice other countries to join in limiting use of what would otherwise be economically competitive fossil fuels; (3) Apply geo-engineering techniques such as stratospheric sulfur injection to limit global average temperature increase, without a major global reduction in carbon emissions. Taking into account China’s expected influence and approach to limiting the impact of anthropogenic climate change allows for a narrower range of possible outcomes than for a set of scenarios that are not constrained by analysis of likely policy-driven limitations. While China could hold back on implementing geoengineering given a remarkable amount of international cooperation on limiting fossil carbon burning, an outcome where geoengineering is used to delay the perceived need to limit the atmospheric CO2 concentration may be difficult to avoid.
Keywords: China; carbon emissions; geo-engineering China; carbon emissions; geo-engineering
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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MDPI and ACS Style

Singer, C.; Milligan, T.; Rethinaraj, T.G. How China’s Options Will Determine Global Warming. Challenges 2014, 5, 1-25.

AMA Style

Singer C, Milligan T, Rethinaraj TG. How China’s Options Will Determine Global Warming. Challenges. 2014; 5(1):1-25.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Singer, Clifford; Milligan, Timothy; Rethinaraj, T.S. G. 2014. "How China’s Options Will Determine Global Warming." Challenges 5, no. 1: 1-25.


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