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J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2016, 4(3), 48; doi:10.3390/jmse4030048

An Open-Access, Multi-Decadal, Three-Dimensional, Hydrodynamic Hindcast Dataset for the Long Island Sound and New York/New Jersey Harbor Estuaries

1
Davidson Laboratory, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA
2
Marine Fisheries Division, Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, Old Lyme, CT 06371, USA
3
NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Richard P. Signell
Received: 17 July 2016 / Revised: 8 August 2016 / Accepted: 11 August 2016 / Published: 16 August 2016
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Abstract

This article presents the results and validation of a comprehensive, multi-decadal, hindcast simulation performed using the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System´s (NYHOPS) three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Meteorological forcing was based on three-hourly gridded data from the North American Regional Reanalysis of the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Distributed hydrologic forcing was based on daily United States Geologic Survey records. Offshore boundary conditions for NYHOPS at the Mid-Atlantic Bight shelf break included hourly subtidal water levels from a larger-scale model ran for the same period, tides, and temperature and salinity profiles based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation datasets. The NYHOPS model’s application to hindcast total water level and 3D water temperature and salinity conditions in its region over three decades was validated against observations from multiple agencies. Average indices of agreement were: 0.93 for storm surge (9 cm RMSE, 90% of errors less than 15 cm), 0.99 for water temperature (1.1 °C RMSE, 99% of errors less than 3 °C), and 0.86 for salinity (1.8 psu RMSE, 96% of errors less than 3.5 psu). The model’s skill in simulating bottom water temperature, validated against historic data from the Long Island Sound bottom trawl survey, did not drift over the years, a significant and encouraging finding for multi-decadal model applications used to identify climatic trends, such as the warming presented here. However, the validation reveals residual biases in some areas such as small tributaries that receive urban discharges from the NYC drainage network. With regard to the validation of storm surge at coastal stations, both the considerable strengths and remaining limitations of the use of North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to force such a model application are discussed. View Full-Text
Keywords: Long Island Sound; New York/New Jersey Harbor Estuary; NYHOPS model; multi-decadal hydrodynamic hindcast; North American Regional Reanalysis Long Island Sound; New York/New Jersey Harbor Estuary; NYHOPS model; multi-decadal hydrodynamic hindcast; North American Regional Reanalysis
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Georgas, N.; Yin, L.; Jiang, Y.; Wang, Y.; Howell, P.; Saba, V.; Schulte, J.; Orton, P.; Wen, B. An Open-Access, Multi-Decadal, Three-Dimensional, Hydrodynamic Hindcast Dataset for the Long Island Sound and New York/New Jersey Harbor Estuaries. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2016, 4, 48.

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