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Geosciences 2018, 8(2), 78; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8020078

Examples of Application of GASAKe for Predicting the Occurrence of Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Southern Italy

1
Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica (IRPI), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), via Cavour 6, 87036 Rende (CS), Italy
2
Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica (IRPI), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), via Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 12 January 2018 / Revised: 16 February 2018 / Accepted: 22 February 2018 / Published: 24 February 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)
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Abstract

GASAKe is an empirical-hydrological model aimed at forecasting the time of occurrence of landslides. Activations can be predicted of either single landslides or sets of slope movements of the same type in a homogeneous environment. The model requires a rainfall series and a set of dates of landslide activation as input data. Calibration is performed through genetic algorithms, and allows for determining a family of optimal kernels to weight antecedent rainfall properly. As output, the mobility function highlights critical conditions of slope stability. Based on suitable calibration and validation samples of activation dates, the model represents a useful tool to be integrated in early-warning systems for geo-hydrological risk mitigation purposes. In the present paper, examples of application to three rock slides in Calabria and to cases of soil slips in Campania are discussed. Calibration and validation are discussed, based on independent datasets. Obtained results are either excellent for two of the Calabrian rock slides or just promising for the remaining case studies. The best performances of the model take advantage of an accurate knowledge of the activation history of the landslides, and a proper hydrological characterization of the sites. For such cases, GASAKe could be usefully employed within early-warning systems for geo-hydrological risk mitigation and Civil Protection purposes. Finally, a new release of the model is presently under test: its innovative features are briefly presented. View Full-Text
Keywords: landslide forecasting; threshold; hydrological model; genetic algorithms; Calabria; Campania landslide forecasting; threshold; hydrological model; genetic algorithms; Calabria; Campania
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Terranova, O.; Gariano, S.L.; Iaquinta, P.; Lupiano, V.; Rago, V.; Iovine, G. Examples of Application of GASAKe for Predicting the Occurrence of Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Southern Italy. Geosciences 2018, 8, 78.

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