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Geosciences 2017, 7(3), 88; doi:10.3390/geosciences7030088

Comparison of Flood Frequency Analysis Methods for Ungauged Catchments in France

Irstea—Centre d’Aix-en-Provence, 3275 Route Cézanne, 13100 Aix-en-Provence, France
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Received: 11 August 2017 / Revised: 12 September 2017 / Accepted: 14 September 2017 / Published: 18 September 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural Hazards and Risks Assessment)
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Abstract

The objective of flood frequency analysis (FFA) is to associate flood intensity with a probability of exceedance. Many methods are currently employed for this, ranging from statistical distribution fitting to simulation approaches. In many cases the site of interest is actually ungauged, and a regionalisation scheme has to be associated with the FFA method, leading to a multiplication of the number of possible methods available. This paper presents the results of a wide-range comparison of FFA methods from statistical and simulation families associated with different regionalisation schemes based on regression, or spatial or physical proximity. The methods are applied to a set of 1535 French catchments, and a k-fold cross-validation procedure is used to consider the ungauged configuration. The results suggest that FFA from the statistical family largely relies on the regionalisation step, whereas the simulation-based method is more stable regarding regionalisation. This conclusion emphasises the difficulty of the regionalisation process. The results are also contrasted depending on the type of climate: the Mediterranean catchments tend to aggravate the differences between the methods. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood frequency analysis; regionalisation; comparison; ungauged catchments; simulation; rainfall-runoff flood frequency analysis; regionalisation; comparison; ungauged catchments; simulation; rainfall-runoff
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Odry, J.; Arnaud, P. Comparison of Flood Frequency Analysis Methods for Ungauged Catchments in France. Geosciences 2017, 7, 88.

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