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Land 2014, 3(2), 362-389; doi:10.3390/land3020362
Review

Land-Use Threats and Protected Areas: A Scenario-Based, Landscape Level Approach

* ,
,
 and
U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road MS-531, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 21 January 2014 / Revised: 21 March 2014 / Accepted: 28 March 2014 / Published: 8 April 2014
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Landscape Perspectives on Environmental Conservation)
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Abstract

Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higher likelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially explicit (1 km2) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternative land-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed scenario-based land-use conversion threats from logging, agriculture, and development near existing protected areas. A conversion threat index (CTI) was created to identify ecoregions with highest projected land-use conversion potential within closest proximity to existing protected areas. Our analysis indicated nearly 22% of land area in the Coast Range, over 16% of land area in the Puget Lowland, and nearly 11% of the Cascades had very high CTI values. Broader regional-scale land-use change is projected to impact nearly 40% of the Coast Range, 30% of the Puget Lowland, and 24% of the Cascades (i.e., two highest CTI classes). A landscape level, scenario-based approach to modeling future land use helps identify ecoregions with existing protected areas at greater risk from regional land-use threats and can help prioritize future conservation efforts.
Keywords: land use; land cover; protected areas; scenarios; state-and-transition models; IPCC; conversion threat; Pacific Northwest land use; land cover; protected areas; scenarios; state-and-transition models; IPCC; conversion threat; Pacific Northwest
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0).
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Wilson, T.S.; Sleeter, B.M.; Sleeter, R.R.; Soulard, C.E. Land-Use Threats and Protected Areas: A Scenario-Based, Landscape Level Approach. Land 2014, 3, 362-389.

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