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Agronomy 2018, 8(4), 34; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy8040034

Challenges and Responses to Ongoing and Projected Climate Change for Dryland Cereal Production Systems throughout the World

1
Agriculture Victoria Research, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Horsham, Victoria 3400, Australia
2
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), NASC Complex, New Delhi 110012, India
3
Institute of Plant Production and Protection, Universidad Austral de Chile, Campus Isla Teja, Valdivia 14101, Chile
4
Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia
5
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, ICRAF House, United Nations Avenue, Nairobi 00601, Kenya
6
Department of Entomology, Plant Pathology and Nematology, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83209, USA
7
Institute of Environment and sustainable Development in Agriculture/Key Laboratory of Ministry of Agriculture on Agro-Environment and Climate Change, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
8
Laboratory Director and Supervisory Plant Physiologist, National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment, Ames, IA 50011, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 28 February 2018 / Revised: 13 March 2018 / Accepted: 16 March 2018 / Published: 23 March 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Agriculture: Impacts and Adaptations)
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Abstract

Since the introduction of mechanized production in both developed and developing countries, crops and their management have undergone significant adaptation resulting in increased productivity. Historical yield increases in wheat have occurred across most regions of the world (20–88 kg ha−1 year−1), but climate trends threaten to dampen or reverse these gains such that yields are expected to decrease by 5–6% despite rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Current and projected climatic factors are temporally and spatially variable in dryland cereal production systems throughout the world. Productivity gains in wheat in some locations have been achieved from traditional agronomic practices and breeding. Continued improvement in all cereal production regions and locations of the world requires technical advances, including closer monitoring of soils, water conservation strategies, and multiple sowing times using different crops to reduce risks. The management of disease, pests, and weeds will be an added challenge, especially in areas of higher precipitation. Excellent progress has been achieved in Asia and there is much potential in Sub-Saharan Africa. Technical solutions seem within our grasp but must be implemented in the context of variable social, economic, regulatory, and administrative constraints, providing opportunities for cross fertilization and global collaboration to meet them. View Full-Text
Keywords: crop modelling; sustainability; productivity; global production crop modelling; sustainability; productivity; global production
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O’Leary, G.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Calderini, D.F.; Connor, D.J.; Craufurd, P.; Eigenbrode, S.D.; Han, X.; Hatfield, J.L. Challenges and Responses to Ongoing and Projected Climate Change for Dryland Cereal Production Systems throughout the World. Agronomy 2018, 8, 34.

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