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Erev, I. et al. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction. Games 2010, 1, 117-136
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A correction was published on 21 July 2010, see Games 2010, 1(3), 221-225.

Games 2010, 1(2), 117-136; doi:10.3390/g1020117
Article

A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

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Received: 30 April 2010; Accepted: 12 May 2010 / Published: 14 May 2010
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Predicting Behavior in Games)
Download PDF [148 KB, uploaded 14 May 2010]
Abstract: A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation experiment, and a competition experiment. The two experiments use the same methods and subject pool, and examine games randomly selected from the same distribution. The current introductory paper presents the results of the estimation experiment, and clarifies the descriptive value of several baseline models. The experimental results reveal the robustness of eight behavioral tendencies that were documented in previous studies of market entry games and individual decisions from experience. The best baseline model (I-SAW) assumes reliance on small samples of experiences, and strong inertia when the recent results are not surprising. The competition experiment will be run in May 2010 (after the completion of this introduction), but they will not be revealed until September. To participate in the competition, researchers are asked to E-mail the organizers models (implemented in computer programs) that read the incentive structure as input, and derive the predicted behavior as an output. The submitted models will be ranked based on their prediction error. The winners of the competition will be invited to publish a paper that describes their model.
Keywords: reinforcement learning; excess entry; recency; surprise triggers change; inertia reinforcement learning; excess entry; recency; surprise triggers change; inertia
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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MDPI and ACS Style

Erev, I.; Ert, E.; Roth, A.E. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction. Games 2010, 1, 117-136.

AMA Style

Erev I, Ert E, Roth AE. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction. Games. 2010; 1(2):117-136.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Erev, Ido; Ert, Eyal; Roth, Alvin E. 2010. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction." Games 1, no. 2: 117-136.


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