A correction was published on 21 July 2010, see Games 2010, 1(3), 221-225.

Games 2010, 1(2), 117-136; doi:10.3390/g1020117

A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

1,* email, 2email and 3,4email
1 Max Wertheimer Minerva Center for Cognitive Studies, Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion, Haifa 32000, Israel 2 Computer Laboratory for Experimental Research, Harvard Business School, Boston, MA, 02163, USA 3 Department of Economics, 308 Littauer, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA 4 Harvard Business School, 441 Baker Library, Boston, MA 02163, USA
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 30 April 2010; Accepted: 12 May 2010 / Published: 14 May 2010
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Predicting Behavior in Games)
PDF Full-text Download PDF Full-Text [148 KB, uploaded 14 May 2010 14:42 CEST]
Abstract: A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation experiment, and a competition experiment. The two experiments use the same methods and subject pool, and examine games randomly selected from the same distribution. The current introductory paper presents the results of the estimation experiment, and clarifies the descriptive value of several baseline models. The experimental results reveal the robustness of eight behavioral tendencies that were documented in previous studies of market entry games and individual decisions from experience. The best baseline model (I-SAW) assumes reliance on small samples of experiences, and strong inertia when the recent results are not surprising. The competition experiment will be run in May 2010 (after the completion of this introduction), but they will not be revealed until September. To participate in the competition, researchers are asked to E-mail the organizers models (implemented in computer programs) that read the incentive structure as input, and derive the predicted behavior as an output. The submitted models will be ranked based on their prediction error. The winners of the competition will be invited to publish a paper that describes their model.
Keywords: reinforcement learning; excess entry; recency; surprise triggers change; inertia

Supplementary Files and Correction

Article Statistics

Load and display the download statistics.

Citations to this Article

Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Erev, I.; Ert, E.; Roth, A.E. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction. Games 2010, 1, 117-136.

AMA Style

Erev I, Ert E, Roth AE. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction. Games. 2010; 1(2):117-136.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Erev, Ido; Ert, Eyal; Roth, Alvin E. 2010. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction." Games 1, no. 2: 117-136.

Games EISSN 2073-4336 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert