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A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction
Max Wertheimer Minerva Center for Cognitive Studies, Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion, Haifa 32000, Israel
Computer Laboratory for Experimental Research, Harvard Business School, Boston, MA, 02163, USA
Department of Economics, 308 Littauer, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Harvard Business School, 441 Baker Library, Boston, MA 02163, USA
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 30 April 2010 / Accepted: 12 May 2010 / Published: 14 May 2010
Abstract: A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation experiment, and a competition experiment. The two experiments use the same methods and subject pool, and examine games randomly selected from the same distribution. The current introductory paper presents the results of the estimation experiment, and clarifies the descriptive value of several baseline models. The experimental results reveal the robustness of eight behavioral tendencies that were documented in previous studies of market entry games and individual decisions from experience. The best baseline model (I-SAW) assumes reliance on small samples of experiences, and strong inertia when the recent results are not surprising. The competition experiment will be run in May 2010 (after the completion of this introduction), but they will not be revealed until September. To participate in the competition, researchers are asked to E-mail the organizers models (implemented in computer programs) that read the incentive structure as input, and derive the predicted behavior as an output. The submitted models will be ranked based on their prediction error. The winners of the competition will be invited to publish a paper that describes their model.
Keywords: reinforcement learning; excess entry; recency; surprise triggers change; inertia
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Cite This Article
MDPI and ACS Style
Erev, I.; Ert, E.; Roth, A.E. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction. Games 2010, 1, 117-136.
Erev I, Ert E, Roth AE. A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction. Games. 2010; 1(2):117-136.
Erev, Ido; Ert, Eyal; Roth, Alvin E. 2010. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction." Games 1, no. 2: 117-136.