Next Article in Journal
Comparing MODIS Net Primary Production Estimates with Terrestrial National Forest Inventory Data in Austria
Next Article in Special Issue
What Four Decades of Earth Observation Tell Us about Land Degradation in the Sahel?
Previous Article in Journal
Building Extraction from Airborne Laser Scanning Data: An Analysis of the State of the Art
Previous Article in Special Issue
Climate Contributions to Vegetation Variations in Central Asian Drylands: Pre- and Post-USSR Collapse
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Remote Sens. 2015, 7(4), 3863-3877;

Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing 100875, China
Mongolian and Inner Asia Studies Unit, Cambridge University, Cambridge CB2 3RF, UK
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, 222 TianShui Street, Lanzhou 730000, China
Department of Cultural Relics and Museology, Fudan University, 220 Handan Road, Shanghai 200433, China
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Dublin, Belfield, D4, Ireland
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Arnon Karnieli, Ioannis Gitas and Prasad S. Thenkabail
Received: 6 December 2014 / Revised: 17 March 2015 / Accepted: 23 March 2015 / Published: 1 April 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Remote Sensing of Land Degradation in Drylands)
Full-Text   |   PDF [8585 KB, uploaded 2 April 2015]   |  


Dry Land Asia is the largest arid and semi-arid region in the northern hemisphere that suffers from land desertification. Over the period 1982–2011, there were both overall improvement and regional degeneration in the vegetation NDVI. We analyze future climate changes in these area using two ensemble-average methods from CMIP5 data. Bayesian Model Averaging shows a better capability to represent the future climate and less uncertainty represented by the 22-model ensemble than does the Simple Model Average. From 2006 to 2100, the average growing season temperature value will increase by 2.9 °C, from 14.4 °C to 17.3 °C under three climate scenarios (RCP 26, RCP 45 and RCP 85). We then conduct multiple regression analysis between climate changes compiled from the Climate Research Unit database and vegetation greenness from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. There is a general acceleration in the desertification trend under the RCP 85 scenario in middle and northern part of Middle Asia, northwestern China except Xinjiang and the Mongolian Plateau (except the middle part). The RCP 85 scenario shows a more severe desertification trend than does RCP 26. Desertification in dry land Asia, particularly in the regions highlighted in this study, calls for further investigation into climate change impacts and adaptations. View Full-Text
Keywords: CMIP5; climate change; desertification; simulation; dry land Asia CMIP5; climate change; desertification; simulation; dry land Asia

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Miao, L.; Ye, P.; He, B.; Chen, L.; Cui, X. Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data. Remote Sens. 2015, 7, 3863-3877.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics



[Return to top]
Remote Sens. EISSN 2072-4292 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top