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Remote Sens. 2015, 7(4), 3863-3877; doi:10.3390/rs70403863

Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data

1
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing 100875, China
2
Mongolian and Inner Asia Studies Unit, Cambridge University, Cambridge CB2 3RF, UK
3
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, 222 TianShui Street, Lanzhou 730000, China
4
Department of Cultural Relics and Museology, Fudan University, 220 Handan Road, Shanghai 200433, China
5
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Dublin, Belfield, D4, Ireland
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Arnon Karnieli, Ioannis Gitas and Prasad S. Thenkabail
Received: 6 December 2014 / Revised: 17 March 2015 / Accepted: 23 March 2015 / Published: 1 April 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Remote Sensing of Land Degradation in Drylands)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [8585 KB, uploaded 2 April 2015]   |  

Abstract

Dry Land Asia is the largest arid and semi-arid region in the northern hemisphere that suffers from land desertification. Over the period 1982–2011, there were both overall improvement and regional degeneration in the vegetation NDVI. We analyze future climate changes in these area using two ensemble-average methods from CMIP5 data. Bayesian Model Averaging shows a better capability to represent the future climate and less uncertainty represented by the 22-model ensemble than does the Simple Model Average. From 2006 to 2100, the average growing season temperature value will increase by 2.9 °C, from 14.4 °C to 17.3 °C under three climate scenarios (RCP 26, RCP 45 and RCP 85). We then conduct multiple regression analysis between climate changes compiled from the Climate Research Unit database and vegetation greenness from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. There is a general acceleration in the desertification trend under the RCP 85 scenario in middle and northern part of Middle Asia, northwestern China except Xinjiang and the Mongolian Plateau (except the middle part). The RCP 85 scenario shows a more severe desertification trend than does RCP 26. Desertification in dry land Asia, particularly in the regions highlighted in this study, calls for further investigation into climate change impacts and adaptations. View Full-Text
Keywords: CMIP5; climate change; desertification; simulation; dry land Asia CMIP5; climate change; desertification; simulation; dry land Asia
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Miao, L.; Ye, P.; He, B.; Chen, L.; Cui, X. Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data. Remote Sens. 2015, 7, 3863-3877.

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