Analysis of the Atmospheric Duct Existence Factors in Tropical Cyclones Based on the SHAP Interpretation of Extreme Gradient Boosting Predictions
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data, Model and Methods
2.1. The Method of Determining TC Ducts
2.2. Datasets for the Predictions of TC Ducts
2.3. XGBoost Model
2.4. SHAP Interpretation for the TC Ducts Prediction
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. The Performance of the XGBoost Algorithm on the Testing Dataset
3.2. The Top 20 Most Important Features to the Existence of the AD
3.3. The Relationship between AD Existence and the Features
4. Case Analysis in the Tropical Storm Nestor
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Category | Feature Name |
---|---|
Meteorological parameters | Specific humidity (1000–500 hPa) |
Temperature (1000–500 hPa) | |
Zonal winds (1000–500 hPa) | |
Meridional winds (1000–500 hPa) | |
TC parameters | TC grades |
TC RMW | |
Dropsonde quadrant | |
TC-dropsonde distance | |
Location parameters | Latitude |
Longitude |
Parameter | Value |
---|---|
Learning_rate | 0.05 |
Max_depth | 9 |
N_estimators | 3000 |
Min_child_weight | 1 |
Reg_lamda | 1 |
Reg_alpha | 0.1 |
Subsample | 0.9 |
Colsample_bytree | 0.9 |
Gamma | 0 |
Pressure Levels (hPa) | Altitudes (km) |
---|---|
500 | 4.94 |
550 | 4.42 |
600 | 3.48 |
650 | 3.06 |
700 | 2.67 |
750 | 2.31 |
775 | 1.98 |
800 | 1.68 |
825 | 1.41 |
850 | 1.17 |
875 | 0.95 |
900 | 0.76 |
925 | 0.60 |
950 | 0.46 |
975 | 0.24 |
1000 | 0.10 |
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Huang, L.; Zhao, X.; Liu, Y.; Yang, P. Analysis of the Atmospheric Duct Existence Factors in Tropical Cyclones Based on the SHAP Interpretation of Extreme Gradient Boosting Predictions. Remote Sens. 2022, 14, 3952. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14163952
Huang L, Zhao X, Liu Y, Yang P. Analysis of the Atmospheric Duct Existence Factors in Tropical Cyclones Based on the SHAP Interpretation of Extreme Gradient Boosting Predictions. Remote Sensing. 2022; 14(16):3952. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14163952
Chicago/Turabian StyleHuang, Lang, Xiaofeng Zhao, Yudi Liu, and Pinglv Yang. 2022. "Analysis of the Atmospheric Duct Existence Factors in Tropical Cyclones Based on the SHAP Interpretation of Extreme Gradient Boosting Predictions" Remote Sensing 14, no. 16: 3952. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14163952