Next Article in Journal
Conservation Farming and Changing Climate: More Beneficial than Conventional Methods for Degraded Ugandan Soils
Next Article in Special Issue
Parameter Estimation of the Farquhar—von Caemmerer—Berry Biochemical Model from Photosynthetic Carbon Dioxide Response Curves
Previous Article in Journal
Relationship among Concentrations of Indoor Air Contaminants, Their Sources, and Different Mitigation Strategies on Indoor Air Quality
Previous Article in Special Issue
Bioclimatic Classification of Northeast Asia Reflecting Social Factors: Development and Characterization
Article Menu
Issue 7 (July) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Sustainability 2017, 9(7), 1152; doi:10.3390/su9071152

Vulnerability of Ukrainian Forests to Climate Change

1
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
2
G.M. Vysotskyi Ukrainian Research Institute of Forestry and Agroforestry, Pushkinska str., 86, 61024 Kharkiv, Ukraine
3
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Nauky prospect 37, 03028 Kyiv, Ukraine
4
Institute of Forestry and Landscape-Park Management, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Geroiv Oborony Str. 15, 03028 Kyiv, Ukraine
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 8 May 2017 / Revised: 12 June 2017 / Accepted: 27 June 2017 / Published: 30 June 2017
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [9034 KB, uploaded 4 July 2017]   |  

Abstract

Ukraine is a country of the Mid-Latitude ecotone—a transition zone between forest zone and forestless dry lands. Availability of water defines distribution of the country’s forests and decreases their productivity towards the south. Climate change generates a particular threat for Ukrainian forests and stability of agroforestry landscapes. This paper considers the impacts of expected climate change on vulnerability of Ukrainian forests using ensembles of global and regional climatic models (RCM) based on Scenarios B1, A2, A1B of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, and a “dry and warm” scenario A1B+T−P (increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation). The spatially explicit assessment was provided by RCM for the WMO standard period (1961–1990), “recent” (1991–2010) and three future periods: 2011–2030, 2031–2050 and 2081–2100. Forest-climate model by Vorobjov and model of amplitude of flora’s tolerance to climate change by Didukh, as well as a number of specialized climatic indicators, were used in the assessment. Different approaches lead to rather consistent conclusions. Water stress is the major limitation factor of distribution and resilience of flatland Ukrainian forests. Within Scenario A1B, the area with unsuitable growth conditions for major forest forming species will substantially increase by end of the century occupying major part of Ukraine. Scenario A1B+T−P projects even a more dramatic decline of the country’s forests. It is expected that the boundary of conditions that are favorable for forests will shift to north and northwest, and forests of the xeric belt will be the most vulnerable. Consistent policies of adaptation and mitigation might reduce climate-induced risks for Ukrainian forests. View Full-Text
Keywords: Ukrainian forests; climate change; xeric belt; predictions of state and distribution of forests over 21st century; Mid-Latitude ecotone Ukrainian forests; climate change; xeric belt; predictions of state and distribution of forests over 21st century; Mid-Latitude ecotone
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Shvidenko, A.; Buksha, I.; Krakovska, S.; Lakyda, P. Vulnerability of Ukrainian Forests to Climate Change. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1152.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Sustainability EISSN 2071-1050 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top