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Sustainability 2017, 9(6), 906; doi:10.3390/su9060906

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuations on China’s Grain Yield

1
Institute of Ecological Civilization, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China
2
Co-Innovation Center of Institutional Construction for Jiangxi Eco-Civilization, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China
3
School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330032, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Yongrok Choi
Received: 24 April 2017 / Revised: 20 May 2017 / Accepted: 23 May 2017 / Published: 29 May 2017
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Abstract

In recent years, food security, especially supply, has been an important issue in China’s agricultural production. The stability of grain prices is related to the stability and development of the grain market. Based on agricultural production data from 1970 to 2015, this paper explores the influence of agricultural product price fluctuation on grain production by using the cobweb theory and vector error correction (VEC) model. The results show that changes in grain production in China are affected by fluctuations in agricultural product prices, that the production change lags behind the price change, and that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between grain yield and agricultural product price. A Granger causality test shows that the change in agricultural product price is the Granger cause of grain yield change. View Full-Text
Keywords: agricultural product price; grain yield; cobweb theory; VEC model; food security; China agricultural product price; grain yield; cobweb theory; VEC model; food security; China
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Xie, H.; Wang, B. An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuations on China’s Grain Yield. Sustainability 2017, 9, 906.

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