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Sustainability 2017, 9(6), 893; doi:10.3390/su9060893

An Agent-Based Model to Project China’s Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Peaks at Multiple Levels

1
Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
2
Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI 48202, USA
3
East China Normal University, Key Laboratory of Geographical Information Science, Ministry of State Education of China, Shanghai 200062, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Francesco Nocera
Received: 6 February 2017 / Revised: 16 April 2017 / Accepted: 18 May 2017 / Published: 26 May 2017
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [3308 KB, uploaded 26 May 2017]   |  

Abstract

To assess whether China’s emissions will peak around 2030, we forecast energy consumption and carbon emissions in China. We use an agent-based model driven by enterprises’ innovation. Results show some differences in both energy consumption peaks and carbon emission peaks when we compare trends at different levels. We find that carbon emissions and energy consumption will peak in 2027 and 2028, respectively. However, the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries will reach energy consumption in different years: 2023, 2029, and 2022, respectively, and reach carbon emission peaks in 2022, 2028, and 2022, respectively. At the sectoral level, we find a wider range of energy consumption peaks and carbon emission peaks. Peak energy consumption occurs between 2020 and 2034, and peak carbon emissions between 2020 and 2032. Commercial and catering businesses, utilities and resident services, and finance and insurance achieve peak energy consumption and carbon emissions earliest in 2020, while building materials and other non-metallic mineral products manufacturing and metal products manufacturing are the two latest sectors to reach peak energy consumption and emissions, in 2034 and 2032, respectively. View Full-Text
Keywords: carbon emissions; energy consumption; agent-based simulation; industrial structure; evolutionary economics; emission peak; climate change carbon emissions; energy consumption; agent-based simulation; industrial structure; evolutionary economics; emission peak; climate change
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Wu, J.; Mohamed, R.; Wang, Z. An Agent-Based Model to Project China’s Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Peaks at Multiple Levels. Sustainability 2017, 9, 893.

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