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Sustainability 2017, 9(4), 539; doi:10.3390/su9040539

Monte Carlo vs. Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation for Uncertainty and Global Sensitivity Analysis

Division of Architecture, Architectural Engineering and Civil Engineering, Sunmoon University, Asan, Chungnam 336-708, Korea
Academic Editor: Ali Bahadory-Jahromi
Received: 22 February 2017 / Revised: 24 March 2017 / Accepted: 29 March 2017 / Published: 31 March 2017
(This article belongs to the Section Energy Sustainability)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [4242 KB, uploaded 6 April 2017]   |  

Abstract

Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) has been widely used for the uncertainty propagations of building simulation tools. In general, most unknown inputs for the MCS are regarded as single probability distributions based on experts’ subjective judgements and assumptions, when simulation information and measured data are inaccurate and insufficient. However, this can lead to meaningless and untrustworthy results, since the results are obtained using only single probability distributions without considering reducible possibilities of some unknown inputs. This paper introduces a fuzzy MCS for dealing with the aforementioned problems. In comparison with the MCS, the fuzzy MCS has the advantage of considering the aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, and can provide a family of probability distributions. This paper also discusses how fuzzy MCS could be effectively used for uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis. View Full-Text
Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation; fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation; uncertainty; sensitivity; building simulation Monte Carlo simulation; fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation; uncertainty; sensitivity; building simulation
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Kim, Y.-J. Monte Carlo vs. Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation for Uncertainty and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Sustainability 2017, 9, 539.

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