Demographic Changes and Real Estate Values. A Quantitative Model for Analyzing the Urban-Rural Linkages
Abstract
:1. Critical Issues in Urban Planning
- (1)
- to define, at first, the extension of the geographical area in which the main dynamics take place;
- (2)
- to then identify the variables that can express the behaviour of the urban system;
- (3)
2. Methodology and Operational Phases for the Demographic Analysis
- a central core, corresponding to the historic town centre of Naples, in which there aren’t significant changes in the population;
- a first inside ring, that consists of the more peripheral municipality and the municipalities of Portici, S.Giorgio a Cremano, San Sebastiano, Cerola, Casoria, and Arzano, in which there is a decided reduction in the population (of around 65,000 inhabitants and −6.1%);
- a second external ring, consisting of all remaining municipalities (from Monte di Procida to Giugliano up to Acerra and Massa di Somma), in which, on the contrary, there are important population growths (about 48,000 inhabitants, corresponding to +5.3%).
3. A Diachronic Spatial Model for the Analysis of the Correlation between Property Values and Population Dynamics
4. The Effects of the Coexistence of Urban Centers and Rural Areas in the Analysis Model
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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NAME | Population | Values | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Area [km2] | Zone | Ring | POP_2001 | POP_2011 | ΔPOP | ΔPOPPERC | FID_OMI_1 | PREZZI13 | PREZZI03 | VAR1303 | VARPERC | ΔVxP | |
ARZANO–Zone OMI D1 | 0.80 | D1 | F | 1505 | 1211 | −294 | −19.6% | 10 | 1275 | 1300 | −25 | −1.9% | −23 |
ARZANO–Zone OMI B2 | 0.53 | B2 | F | 9854 | 8848 | −1006 | −10.2% | 11 | 1450 | 1425 | 25 | 1.8% | 155 |
ARZANO–Zone OMI B1 | 0.85 | B1 | F | 11,839 | 10,694 | −1146 | −9.7% | 12 | 1650 | 1520 | 130 | 8.6% | 915 |
ARZANO–Zone OMI C1 | 2.14 | C1 | F | 10,680 | 10,037 | −643 | −6.0% | 13 | 1600 | 1110 | 490 | 44.1% | 4431 |
ARZANO–Zone OMI C1 | 0.35 | C1 | F | 4702 | 4151 | −551 | −11.7% | 14 | 1600 | 1110 | 490 | 44.1% | 1832 |
CASAVATORE–Zone OMI B2 | 0.22 | B2 | F | 3284 | 3378 | 94 | 2.9% | 51 | 1525 | 700 | 825 | 117.9% | 3982 |
CASAVATORE–Zone OMI C2 | 0.27 | C2 | F | 3085 | 2925 | −160 | −5.2% | 52 | 1450 | 620 | 830 | 133.9% | 3915 |
CASAVATORE–Zone OMI B1 | 0.06 | B1 | F | 1228 | 1232 | 4 | 0.3% | 53 | 1400 | 855 | 545 | 63.7% | 786 |
CASAVATORE–Zone OMI C1 | 0.17 | C1 | F | 4004 | 3519 | −485 | −12.1% | 54 | 1650 | 875 | 775 | 88.6% | 3117 |
CASORIA–Zone OMI D1 | 3.50 | D1 | F | 18,457 | 17,798 | −659 | −3.6% | 56 | 1575 | 700 | 875 | 125.0% | 22,247 |
CASORIA–Zone OMI B1 | 0.34 | B1 | F | 6677 | 6556 | −121 | −1.8% | 57 | 1575 | 1135 | 440 | 38.8% | 2542 |
CASORIA–Zone OMI C1 | 6.23 | C1 | F | 53,010 | 50,914 | −2096 | −4.0% | 58 | 1725 | 985 | 740 | 75.1% | 38,250 |
CASORIA–Zone OMI D2 | 1.97 | D2 | F | 2287 | 2112 | −175 | −7.7% | 59 | 1275 | 595 | 680 | 114.3% | 2413 |
ERCOLANO–Zone OMI B2 | 0.90 | B2 | F | 19,701 | 17,292 | −2409 | −12.2% | 72 | 1950 | 1425 | 525 | 36.8% | 6371 |
ERCOLANO–Zone OMI B1 | 0.36 | B1 | F | 7780 | 7099 | −681 | −8.7% | 75 | 1575 | 765 | 810 | 105.9% | 7517 |
FRATTAMAGGIORE–Zone OMI D1 | 1.57 | D1 | F | 1239 | 791 | −448 | −36.2% | 77 | 1450 | 620 | 830 | 133.9% | 1058 |
FRATTAMAGGIORE–Zone OMI C2 | 0.71 | C2 | F | 3868 | 3497 | −371 | −9.6% | 78 | 1450 | 775 | 675 | 87.1% | 3046 |
FRATTAMAGGIORE–Zone OMI B1 | 1.85 | B1 | F | 16,702 | 15,815 | −887 | −5.3% | 81 | 1875 | 1160 | 715 | 61.6% | 9748 |
FRATTAMAGGIORE–Zone OMI C1 | 0.87 | C1 | F | 9539 | 8857 | −682 | −7.2% | 82 | 1700 | 855 | 845 | 98.8% | 8753 |
GRUMO NEVANO–Zone OMI B1 | 0.41 | B1 | F | 5657 | 5308 | −349 | −6.2% | 95 | 1250 | 930 | 320 | 34.4% | 1826 |
MARANO DI NAPOLI–Zone OMI B1 | 0.88 | B1 | F | 14,972 | 13,624 | −1348 | −9.0% | 101 | 1650 | 1500 | 150 | 10.0% | 1362 |
MARANO DI NAPOLI–Zone OMI D2 | 2.58 | D2 | F | 4689 | 4221 | −468 | −10.0% | 105 | 1575 | 775 | 800 | 103.2% | 4357 |
NAPOLI–Zone OMI D13 | 2.51 | D13 | F | 22,914 | 20,808 | −2106 | −9.2% | 133 | 2900 | 2090 | 810 | 38.8% | 8064 |
NAPOLI - Zona OMI D1 | 1.65 | D1 | F | 12,874 | 12,089 | −785 | −6.1% | 135 | 2250 | 1845 | 405 | 21.9% | 2653 |
NAPOLI - Zona OMI D12 | 0.36 | D12 | F | 4938 | 4753 | −185 | −3.7% | 136 | 1975 | 990 | 985 | 1.0% | 4729 |
NAPOLI - Zona OMI E6 | 1.36 | E6 | F | 6140 | 5681 | −459 | −7.5% | 137 | 1500 | 1115 | 385 | 34.5% | 1961 |
NAPOLI - Zona OMI B6 | 5.76 | B6 | F | 28,409 | 26,711 | −1698 | −6.0% | 139 | 5150 | 5210 | −60 | −1.1% | −307 |
NAPOLI - Zona OMI E3 | 1.22 | E3 | F | 10,847 | 10,354 | −493 | −4.5% | 140 | 1750 | 1115 | 635 | 56.9% | 5897 |
NAPOLI - Zona OMI E8 | 16.40 | E8 | F | 85,436 | 81,795 | −3641 | −4.2% | 141 | 1750 | 1115 | 635 | 56.9% | 46,583 |
NAPOLI - Zona OMI E10 | 5.81 | E10 | F | 53,649 | 52,017 | −1632 | −3.0% | 146 | 1825 | 1250 | 575 | 46.0% | 23,928 |
NAPOLI - Zona OMI C15 | 0.23 | C15 | F | 3301 | 3116 | −185 | −5.6% | 147 | 2275 | 1800 | 475 | 26.4% | 822 |
NAPOLI - Zona OMI E17 | 1.40 | E17 | F | 12,381 | 11,621 | −760 | −6.1% | 152 | 1825 | 1085 | 740 | 68.2% | 7926 |
NAPOLI - Zona OMI B3 | 1.96 | B3 | F | 38,927 | 36,708 | −2219 | −5.7% | 155 | 4400 | 4125 | 275 | 6.7% | 2447 |
NAPOLI - Zona OMI E4 | 6.01 | E4 | F | 41,435 | 37,868 | −3567 | −8.6% | 156 | 1900 | 1240 | 660 | 53.2% | 20,155 |
… | |||||||||||||
SANT’ANASTASIA - Zona OMI D2 | 0.50 | D2 | IRA | 493 | 684 | 191 | 38.7% | 297 | 1325 | 985 | 340 | 34.5% | 7 |
Urban Rings | ΔPop [%] | ΔV [%] |
---|---|---|
Core | –0.7% | +16.9% |
First ring | –6.1% | +51.7% |
Second ring | +5.3% | +80.6% |
Urban Rings | ΔPop [%] | ΔV [%] |
---|---|---|
Core | –0.7% | +16.9% |
First ring | –6.1% | +51.7% |
Second ring (residual) | +3.9% | +83.6% |
Intermediate rural areas | +0.2% | +78.1% |
Rural areas with i.a. | +8.9% | +78.7% |
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Bencardino, M.; Nesticò, A. Demographic Changes and Real Estate Values. A Quantitative Model for Analyzing the Urban-Rural Linkages. Sustainability 2017, 9, 536. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9040536
Bencardino M, Nesticò A. Demographic Changes and Real Estate Values. A Quantitative Model for Analyzing the Urban-Rural Linkages. Sustainability. 2017; 9(4):536. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9040536
Chicago/Turabian StyleBencardino, Massimiliano, and Antonio Nesticò. 2017. "Demographic Changes and Real Estate Values. A Quantitative Model for Analyzing the Urban-Rural Linkages" Sustainability 9, no. 4: 536. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9040536