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Sustainability 2017, 9(3), 321; doi:10.3390/su9030321

Temperature and Cardiovascular Mortality Associations in Four Southern Chinese Cities: A Time-Series Study Using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model

1
Precision Forestry Key Laboratory of Beijing, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
2
The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, China
3
Beijing Aerospace TITAN Technology Co., LTD, Beijing 100083, China
4
School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4072, Australia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Tan Yigitcanlar
Received: 10 November 2016 / Revised: 13 February 2017 / Accepted: 15 February 2017 / Published: 23 February 2017
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [2711 KB, uploaded 23 February 2017]   |  

Abstract

Few studies on population-specific health effects of extreme temperature on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) deaths have been conducted in the subtropical and tropical climates of China. We examined the association between extreme temperature and CVD across four cities in China. We performed a two-stage analysis; we generated city-specific estimates using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and estimated the overall effects by conducting a meta-analysis. Heat thresholds of 29 °C, 29 °C, 29 °C, and 30 °C and cold thresholds of 6 °C, 10 °C, 14 °C, and 15 °C were observed in Hefei, Changsha, Nanning, and Haikou, respectively. The lag periods for heat-related CVD mortality were observed only for 0–2 days, while those of cold-related CVD mortality were observed for 10–15 days. The meta-analysis showed that a 1 °C increase above the city-specific heat threshold was associated with average overall CVD mortality increases of 4.6% (3.0%–6.2%), 6.4% (3.4%–9.4%), and 0.2% (−4.8%–5.2%) for all ages, ≥65 years, and <65 years over a lag period of 0–2 days, respectively. Similarly, a 1 °C decrease below the city-specific cold threshold was associated with average overall CVD mortality increases of 4.2% (3.0%–5.4%), 4.9% (3.5%–6.3%), and 3.1% (1.7%–4.5%), for all ages, ≥65 years, and <65 years over a lag period of 0–15 days, respectively. This work will help to take appropriate measures to reduce temperature-mortality risk in different populations in the subtropical and tropical climates of China. View Full-Text
Keywords: cardiovascular; population-specific; temperature; subtropical; lag effects cardiovascular; population-specific; temperature; subtropical; lag effects
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Huang, J.; Tan, J.; Yu, W. Temperature and Cardiovascular Mortality Associations in Four Southern Chinese Cities: A Time-Series Study Using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model. Sustainability 2017, 9, 321.

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