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Sustainability 2016, 8(3), 214; doi:10.3390/su8030214

Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar

1
Collaborative Innovation Centre on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2
Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shenyang 110166, China
3
National Meteorological Information Centre, Beijing 100081, China
4
Meteorological Service Centre for Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210008, China
5
Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics & Climatic Sciences, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda
These authors contributed equally to this work.
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Kevin Murphy
Received: 7 December 2015 / Revised: 19 February 2016 / Accepted: 23 February 2016 / Published: 27 February 2016
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [6737 KB, uploaded 27 February 2016]   |  

Abstract

A sensitivity analysis of the responses of crops to the chosen production adaptation options under regional climate change was conducted in this study. Projections of winter wheat production for different sowing dates and cultivars were estimated for a major economic and agricultural province of China from 2021 to 2080 using the World Food Study model (WOFOST) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. A modeling chain was established and a correction method was proposed to reduce the bias of the resulting model-simulated climate data. The results indicated that adjusting the sowing dates and cultivars could mitigate the influences of climate change on winter wheat production in Jinagsu. The yield gains were projected from the chosen sowing date and cultivar. The following actions are recommended to ensure high and stable yields under future climate changes: (i) advance the latest sowing date in some areas of northern Jiangsu; and (ii) use heat-tolerant or heat-tolerant and drought-resistant varieties in most areas of Jiangsu rather than the currently used cultivar. Fewer of the common negative effects of using a single climate model occurred when using the sensitivity analysis because our bias correction method was effective for scenario data and because the WOFOST performed well for Jiangsu after calibration. View Full-Text
Keywords: bias correction; WOFOST model; regional climate change; representative concentration pathways scenarios; adaptation options; winter wheat; Jiangsu bias correction; WOFOST model; regional climate change; representative concentration pathways scenarios; adaptation options; winter wheat; Jiangsu
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Tao, S.; Shen, S.; Li, Y.; Wang, Q.; Gao, P.; Mugume, I. Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar. Sustainability 2016, 8, 214.

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