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Sustainability 2016, 8(12), 1198; doi:10.3390/su8121198

Are the Changes in China’s Grain Production Sustainable: Extensive and Intensive Development by the LMDI Approach

1
College of Economics & Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
2
Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, Kudirkos 18-2, LT-03105 Vilnius, Lithuania
3
China Center for Food Security Studies, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Marc A. Rosen
Received: 19 August 2016 / Revised: 31 October 2016 / Accepted: 13 November 2016 / Published: 24 November 2016
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Agriculture, Food and Wildlife)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [1711 KB, uploaded 24 November 2016]   |  

Abstract

China has experienced an uninterrupted growth of grain output during the past decade. However, a long-term analysis indicates fluctuations in productivity and output levels, as well as dramatic shifts in grain crop mix and regional distribution. This paper, therefore, re-examines the major factors behind the dynamics in China’s grain production over the period of 1978–2013. The Index Decomposition Analysis technique, facilitated by means of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index, is employed to factorize the changes in China’s grain output into four effects, i.e., yield effect, area effect, crop-mix effect and spatial distribution effect. The results show that yield effect, having been the major driver behind the growth, is experiencing a declining trend over time, with crop-mix effect gaining increasing importance. The results also indicate that changes in crop-mix caused an increase in the total grain output during 2003–2013, however this was due to abandonment of soybean farming, which is not sustainable in terms of self-sufficiency. The effect of spatial distribution has been diminishing ever since 1984. Therefore, re-allocation of areas sown is not likely to damper the sustainability of grain farming. View Full-Text
Keywords: grain production; sustainability; food security; China; Index Decomposition Analysis; Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index grain production; sustainability; food security; China; Index Decomposition Analysis; Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index
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Li, T.; Baležentis, T.; Cao, L.; Zhu, J.; Kriščiukaitienė, I.; Melnikienė, R. Are the Changes in China’s Grain Production Sustainable: Extensive and Intensive Development by the LMDI Approach. Sustainability 2016, 8, 1198.

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