Assessment and Evolution of the Sustainable Development Ability of Human–Ocean Systems in Coastal Regions of China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Research Paradigm
2.1. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response Framework Analysis of Human–Ocean Systems
2.2. Entropy-Based Evolution of Human–Ocean Systems
2.3. Human–Ocean System Sustainable Development Ability Assessment and Its Evolution
3. Material and Methods
3.1. Design of the Evaluation Indicator System
3.1.1. Socio-Economic Subsystem
Criterion | Sub-Criterion | Indicator | Units | Data Sources | Subjective | Objective | Integrated |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Socio-economic subsystem | Entropy flow (deS): supportive entropy (ΔeS1) | S1 | yuan | [23] | 0.0641 | 0.0371 | 0.0608 |
S2 | t | [23] | 0.0154 | 0.0227 | 0.0233 | ||
S3 | t/ha | [23] | 0.0081 | 0.0136 | 0.0131 | ||
S4 | ×104 t | [23] | 0.0209 | 0.0814 | 0.0514 | ||
S5 | ×104 m3 | [23] | 0.0100 | 0.0913 | 0.0377 | ||
S6 | t | [23] | 0.0052 | 0.1312 | 0.0326 | ||
S7 | m | [23] | 0.0399 | 0.0579 | 0.0600 | ||
S8 | US$ | [23] | 0.0553 | 0.0406 | 0.0591 | ||
S9 | US$ | [23,57] | 0.0311 | 0.0441 | 0.0462 | ||
Entropy flow (deS): consumptive entropy (ΔeS2) | C1 | % | [57] | 0.0061 | 0.0055 | 0.0072 | |
C2 | person/km2 | [57] | 0.0151 | 0.0435 | 0.0320 | ||
C3 | yuan | [57] | 0.0355 | 0.0227 | 0.0354 | ||
C4 (-) | Tec/×104 yuan | [57] | 0.0255 | 0.0023 | 0.0096 | ||
C5 | ha | [23] | 0.0209 | 0.0299 | 0.0312 | ||
C6 | ha | [23] | 0.0104 | 0.0371 | 0.0245 | ||
C7 | ×108 ton-km | [23] | 0.0625 | 0.0422 | 0.0641 | ||
C8 | ×108 passenger-km | [23] | 0.0436 | 0.0341 | 0.0481 | ||
C9 | unit | [23] | 0.0304 | 0.0145 | 0.0262 | ||
Environmental subsystem | Entropy production (diS): destructive entropy (ΔiS2) | D1 (-) | t/×104 | [58] | 0.0752 | 0.0031 | 0.0191 |
D2(-) | t/person | [58] | 0.0165 | 0.0036 | 0.0096 | ||
D3(-) | ×104 cu.m | [58] | 0.0577 | 0.0033 | 0.0173 | ||
D4(-) | t/×104 yuan | [58] | 0.0298 | 0.0025 | 0.0108 | ||
D5(-) | t/×108 yuan | [58] | 0.0231 | 0.0018 | 0.0080 | ||
D6(-) | t/×108 yuan | [58] | 0.0398 | 0.0035 | 0.0147 | ||
D7(-) | ×108 yuan | [23] | 0.0080 | 0.0011 | 0.0038 | ||
Entropy production (diS): reductive entropy (ΔiS1) | R1 | ×104 yuan | [58] | 0.0780 | 0.0415 | 0.0710 | |
R2 | ×108 yuan | [58] | 0.0453 | 0.0228 | 0.0401 | ||
R3 | person | [58] | 0.0311 | 0.0194 | 0.0306 | ||
R4 | person | [23] | 0.0166 | 0.0171 | 0.0210 | ||
R5 | unit | [23] | 0.0127 | 0.0139 | 0.0166 | ||
R6 | km2 | [58] | 0.0077 | 0.0963 | 0.0340 | ||
R7 | km2 | [23,58] | 0.0585 | 0.0185 | 0.0410 |
3.1.2. Environmental Subsystem
3.2. Assessment of Human–Ocean System Evolution based on the Information Entropy Model
3.3. Integrated Weighting Model of Human–Ocean System Sustainable Development Ability Assessment
3.4. Analysis of Human–Ocean System Evolution based on the Richards Model
- (1)
- When λ = 1, the Richards curve is a logistic curve. The development index curve is centrosymmetrical, whose center is point A2. The development speed curve is symmetrical, showing that the speed of development is the same in the earlier and later periods. However, the condition of λ = 1 is theoretical and is not observed in practice.
- (2)
- When λ < 1, the speed of system development peaks earlier in the evolutionary process. Development speed is faster in the earlier period than in the later period, whereas the later period is of longer duration. The entire evolutionary process shows an initially quick then slow trend.
- (3)
- When λ > 1, initial development is slow and becomes faster toward the end, peaking relatively late in the evolutionary process, contrary to that observed when λ < 1.
Point | t | X | dX/dt | Evolutionary Stage |
---|---|---|---|---|
(0, t1) | Slow growth | Uptrend | Germination | |
A1 (A′1, A′′1) | t1 | (turning point) | ||
(t1, t2) | Rapid growth | Uptrend | Growth | |
A2 (A′2, A′′2) | t2 | (maximum) | ||
(t2, t3) | Rapid growth | Downtrend | ||
A3 (A′3, A′′3) | t3 | (turning point) | Maturity | |
(t3, +∞) | Slow growth | Downtrend |
3.5. Data Sources and Processing
3.5.1. Data Sources
3.5.2. Data Processing
3.6. Study Area
4. Results
4.1. Information Entropy-Based Analysis
4.1.1. Four Types of Entropy
4.1.2. Entropy Flow, Entropy Production, and Total Entropy Change
4.2. Sustainable Development Ability of the Human–Ocean System
4.3. Analysis of Human–Ocean System Evolution based on the Richards Model
Region | r | λ | R-Squared | Evolution Curve | Development Speed |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tianjin | 0.0611 | 0.5448 | 0.9504 | Steep at first, smooth later | Quick at first, slow later |
Hebei | 0.0592 | 0.8612 | 0.9754 | Steep at first, smooth later | Quick at first, slow later |
Liaoning | 0.0694 | 0.6312 | 0.9238 | Steep at first, smooth later | Quick at first, slow later |
Shanghai | 0.0671 | 0.2571 | 0.9564 | Steeper at first, smoother later | Quicker at first, slower later |
Jiangsu | 0.0560 | 0.7790 | 0.9040 | Steep at first, smooth later | Quick at first, slow later |
Zhejiang | 0.0487 | 0.5962 | 0.8826 | Steep at first, smooth later | Quick at first, slow later |
Fujian | 0.0356 | 0.9808 | 0.8502 | Steep at first, smooth later | Quick at first, slow later |
Shandong | 0.0509 | 0.3190 | 0.9693 | Steeper at first, smoother later | Quicker at first, slower later |
Guangdong | 0.0389 | 0.4273 | 0.8957 | Steeper at first, smoother later | Quicker at first, slower later |
Guangxi | 0.0355 | 1.0647 | 0.8211 | Smooth at first, steep later | Slow at first, quick later |
Hainan | 0.0323 | 1.0933 | 0.7572 | Smooth at first, steep later | Slow at first, quick later |
Region | R1 | R2 | At1996 | At1 | At2 | At3 | At2012 | Evolutionary Period |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tianjin | 3.2358 | 0.3090 | 0.1549 | 0.1548 | 0.4501 | 0.7515 | 0.3999 | Growth |
Hebei | 3.5820 | 0.2792 | 0.0931 | 0.1951 | 0.4861 | 0.7787 | 0.2337 | Germination to growth |
Liaoning | 3.3310 | 0.3002 | 0.1075 | 0.1663 | 0.4606 | 0.7596 | 0.3147 | Germination to growth |
Shanghai | 2.9139 | 0.3432 | 0.1823 | 0.1136 | 0.4107 | 0.7197 | 0.5150 | Growth to maturity |
Jiangsu | 3.4927 | 0.2863 | 0.1512 | 0.1851 | 0.4774 | 0.7722 | 0.3622 | Germination to growth |
Zhejiang | 3.2925 | 0.3037 | 0.1802 | 0.1617 | 0.4564 | 0.7564 | 0.3857 | Growth |
Fujian | 3.7114 | 0.2694 | 0.1532 | 0.2091 | 0.4981 | 0.7873 | 0.2683 | Growth |
Shandong | 2.9839 | 0.3351 | 0.2076 | 0.1229 | 0.4198 | 0.7273 | 0.4592 | Growth to maturity |
Guangdong | 3.1053 | 0.3220 | 0.2433 | 0.1386 | 0.4349 | 0.7395 | 0.4480 | Growth to maturity |
Guangxi | 3.8017 | 0.2630 | 0.0874 | 0.2186 | 0.5061 | 0.7930 | 0.1529 | Germination |
Hainan | 3.8324 | 0.2609 | 0.1287 | 0.2218 | 0.5088 | 0.7949 | 0.2141 | Germination |
5. Discussion and Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | S7 | S8 | S9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | 1.0000 | −0.1512 | −0.0422 | 0.4263 | 0.2184 | 0.0771 | 0.7776 | 0.8446 | 0.8356 |
S2 | 1.0000 | 0.4544 | −0.0401 | 0.1113 | 0.2026 | −0.4262 | −0.2065 | −0.1966 | |
S3 | 1.0000 | 0.0948 | −0.1938 | 0.1307 | −0.2282 | −0.3266 | −0.3448 | ||
S4 | 1.0000 | 0.7070 | −0.1146 | 0.2691 | 0.3018 | 0.2825 | |||
S5 | 1.0000 | −0.1026 | 0.1297 | 0.3800 | 0.3472 | ||||
S6 | 1.0000 | −0.0991 | 0.0676 | 0.0314 | |||||
S7 | 1.0000 | 0.8020 | 0.8114 | ||||||
S8 | 1.0000 | 0.8990 | |||||||
S9 | 1.0000 |
C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | C7 | C8 | C9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | 1.0000 | −0.6077 | −0.3763 | −0.1458 | −0.1489 | −0.1016 | −0.4840 | −0.0455 | −0.2104 |
C2 | 1.0000 | 0.6513 | −0.1748 | −0.2861 | −0.1496 | 0.7623 | −0.0201 | 0.0870 | |
C3 | 1.0000 | −0.5269 | 0.0176 | −0.1723 | 0.8250 | 0.1861 | 0.4934 | ||
C4 | 1.0000 | 0.0632 | 0.3398 | −0.3135 | −0.1174 | −0.3040 | |||
C5 | 1.0000 | 0.5192 | −0.0567 | 0.5686 | 0.5520 | ||||
C6 | 1.0000 | −0.1097 | 0.1510 | 0.4362 | |||||
C7 | 1.0000 | 0.0963 | 0.2602 | ||||||
C8 | 1.0000 | 0.4124 | |||||||
C9 | 1.0000 |
D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D1 | 1.0000 | −0.0383 | 0.0198 | −0.0246 | 0.0746 | 0.2330 | 0.1096 |
D2 | 1.0000 | −0.3556 | −0.4490 | −0.4549 | −0.4317 | −0.0243 | |
D3 | 1.0000 | 0.6076 | 0.5512 | 0.8396 | −0.2352 | ||
D4 | 1.0000 | 0.8933 | 0.6003 | −0.0920 | |||
D5 | 1.0000 | 0.6083 | −0.1161 | ||||
D6 | 1.0000 | −0.1396 | |||||
D7 | 1.0000 |
R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R1 | 1.0000 | 0.5654 | 0.5446 | 0.2377 | −0.1835 | −0.0710 | 0.2470 |
R2 | 1.0000 | 0.6560 | 0.4196 | −0.1400 | −0.0795 | 0.4340 | |
R3 | 1.0000 | 0.3073 | −0.2943 | −0.1339 | 0.1977 | ||
R4 | 0.3073 | 1.0000 | 0.0993 | −0.0656 | 0.3542 | ||
R5 | 1.0000 | 0.2758 | −0.0615 | ||||
R6 | 1.0000 | −0.1432 | |||||
R7 | 1.0000 |
Appendix B
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | S7 | S8 | S9 | Weight | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.0641 |
S2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 | 3 | 4 | 1/3 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 0.0154 | |
S3 | 1 | 1/3 | 2 | 3 | 1/4 | 1/6 | 1/5 | 0.0081 | ||
S4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1/3 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0.0209 | |||
S5 | 1 | 2 | 1/4 | 1/6 | 1/3 | 0.0100 | ||||
S6 | 1 | 1/6 | 1/7 | 1/6 | 0.0052 | |||||
S7 | 1 | 1/2 | 2 | 0.0399 | ||||||
S8 | 1 | 2 | 0.0553 | |||||||
S9 | 1 | 0.0311 |
C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | C7 | C8 | C9 | Weight | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | 1 | 1/3 | 1/5 | 1/4 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 1/6 | 1/6 | 1/5 | 0.0061 |
C2 | 1 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 1/3 | /2 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 1/3 | 0.0151 | |
C3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 2 | 0.0355 | ||
C4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0.0255 | |||
C5 | 1 | 3 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0.0209 | ||||
C6 | 1 | 1/5 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 0.0104 | |||||
C7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.0625 | ||||||
C8 | 1 | 2 | 0.0436 | |||||||
C9 | 1 | 0.0304 |
D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | Weight | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.0752 |
D2 | 1 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 1/3 | 0.0165 | |
D3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.0577 | ||
D4 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 | 4 | 0.0298 | |||
D5 | 1 | 1/3 | 4 | 0.0231 | ||||
D6 | 1 | 5 | 0.0398 | |||||
D7 | 1 | 0.0080 |
R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | Weight | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0.0780 |
R2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1/2 | 0.0453 | |
R3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1/3 | 0.0311 | ||
R4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1/5 | 0.0166 | |||
R5 | 1 | 3 | 1/3 | 0.0127 | ||||
R6 | 1 | 1/5 | 0.0077 | |||||
R7 | 1 | 0.0585 |
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Sun, C.; Zhang, K.; Zou, W.; Li, B.; Qin, X. Assessment and Evolution of the Sustainable Development Ability of Human–Ocean Systems in Coastal Regions of China. Sustainability 2015, 7, 10399-10427. https://doi.org/10.3390/su70810399
Sun C, Zhang K, Zou W, Li B, Qin X. Assessment and Evolution of the Sustainable Development Ability of Human–Ocean Systems in Coastal Regions of China. Sustainability. 2015; 7(8):10399-10427. https://doi.org/10.3390/su70810399
Chicago/Turabian StyleSun, Caizhi, Kunling Zhang, Wei Zou, Bin Li, and Xionghe Qin. 2015. "Assessment and Evolution of the Sustainable Development Ability of Human–Ocean Systems in Coastal Regions of China" Sustainability 7, no. 8: 10399-10427. https://doi.org/10.3390/su70810399