Spatial Distribution and Changes of the Realizable Triple Cropping System in China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Sources
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. Definition and Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Spatial Distribution of the RTCS
2.3.2. Calculation of Annual Accumulated Temperature and Precipitation
2.3.3. Estimating the Impact of Topography on Key Climate Elements
2.3.4. Crop Climatic-Ecological Suitability Assessment Model
2.3.5. Verification Method of the RTCS Based on Cask Theory
3. Results
3.1. The Influence of Topography on the RTCS
3.2. Response of the RTCS to Climate Change
3.3. Distribution of the RTCS Based on Crop Climatic-Ecological Suitability
3.4. Verification of the Distribution of RTCS in China
4. Discussion
4.1. Influences of Climate Change and Terrain on Changes between Potential TCS and RTCS
4.2. Understanding the Gap between Actual TCS and RTCS Caused by Socio-Economic Factors
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Test Indicators | Period of 1950–80 | Period of 1981–2010 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAT0 | AAT10 | Precipitation | AAT0 | AAT10 | Precipitation | ||
Independence | Durbin–Watson | 1.384 | 1.308 | 1.165 | 1.110 | 0.863 | 0.981 |
Normality | Standard Deviation | 0.998 | 0.998 | 0.992 | 0.999 | 0.999 | 0.999 |
Homoscedasticity | Sig. | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Non-collinearity | Tolerance | 0.717 (J) 1, 0.987 (W) 2, 0.725 (H) 3 | 0.722 (J), 0.988 (W), 0.730 (H) | 0.649 (J), 0.972 (W), 0.694 (H) | 0.545 (J), 0.897 (W), 0.581 (H) | 0.545 (J), 0.897 (W), 0.581 (H) | 0.545 (J), 0.897 (W), 0.581 (H) |
Crop Type | AAT0 (°C·d) | AAT10 (°C·d) | Precipitation (mm) | Average Temperature During Growth Duration (°C) | Temperature Thresholds of Seed Germination (°C) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PT 6 | MinT 7 | MaxT 8 | |||||
Winter wheat | 1800–2600 | 1600–1700 | — | — | 25–31 | 0–5 | 31–37 |
Maize | — | 2000–3000 | 500–1000 | ≥10 | 32–35 | 8–10 | 40–45 |
Double rice | — | ≥4500 | >1000 | ≥20 | 30–37 | 10–12 | 40–42 |
Rapeseed | — | 2000–3000 (s) 4 1400–2500 (t) 5 | — | — | 20–25 | 3–5 | 35–37 |
Sweet potato | — | 2200–4000 | — | — | 13 | 15–25 | 30 |
Periods | Indices | Regression Equation | R | R2 |
---|---|---|---|---|
1951–1980 | AAT0 | AAT0 = 12,580.414 − 9.578J *,9 − 181.545W * − 0.771H * | 0.924 | 0.853 |
AAT10 | AAT10 = 123,580.625 − 11.525J * − 180.188W * − 0.835H * | 0.916 | 0.839 | |
P | P = 1444.047 + 12.376J * − 56.199W * − 0.125H * | 0.930 | 0.863 | |
1981–2010 | AAT0 | AAT0 = 15,598.316 − 33.497J * − 178.781W * − 1.266H * | 0.977 | 0.954 |
AAT10 | AAT10 = 15,331.076 − 35.081J * − 177.794W * − 1.346H * | 0.956 | 0.914 | |
P | P = 1291.441 + 16.646J * − 66.165W * − 0.093H * | 0.895 | 0.801 |
Verification Point | Feasture | Climatic Resources | Growth Period of Crops | Sown Area in 1990 (ha) | Cropping Rotations | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAT0 | AAT10 | P | Crops | Start and End Dates (Month/Ten Days) | ||||
(°C·d) | (°C·d) | (mm) | ||||||
Yixiu District | The lowest AAT0 | 5902 | 5468 | 1417 | Rapeseed | Oct./last-May/first 10 | — 14 | RRR |
Early rice | May/first-Jul./middle | |||||||
Late rice | Jul./last-Oct./last | |||||||
Wheat | Jul./last-Oct./middle 11 | WRR | ||||||
Early rice | Nov./middle-May/middle | |||||||
Late rice | Jul./last-Oct./last | |||||||
Qiubei County | The lowest AAT10 | 5913 | 5409 | 1050 | Wheat | Nov./first-Apr./first 12 | 2166 | WMS |
Maize | Apr./middle-Aug./first | 17,873 | ||||||
Sweet potato | Aug./last-Oct./last | 2646 | ||||||
Junlian County | The lowest P | 5994 | 5528 | 1027 | Wheat | Nov./first-May/first 13 | 5713 | WMS |
Maize | May/first-Aug./middle | 10,240 | ||||||
Sweet potato | Aug./middle-Nov./first | 1140 |
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Jiang, L.; Chen, X.; Lun, F.; Pan, Z.; Niu, J.; Ding, C.; Meng, L.; Zhang, G.; Mgeni, C.P.; Sieber, S.; et al. Spatial Distribution and Changes of the Realizable Triple Cropping System in China. Sustainability 2019, 11, 1654. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11061654
Jiang L, Chen X, Lun F, Pan Z, Niu J, Ding C, Meng L, Zhang G, Mgeni CP, Sieber S, et al. Spatial Distribution and Changes of the Realizable Triple Cropping System in China. Sustainability. 2019; 11(6):1654. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11061654
Chicago/Turabian StyleJiang, Li, Xin Chen, Fei Lun, Zhihua Pan, Jiaheng Niu, Chenyang Ding, Lijun Meng, Guoliang Zhang, Charles Peter Mgeni, Stefan Sieber, and et al. 2019. "Spatial Distribution and Changes of the Realizable Triple Cropping System in China" Sustainability 11, no. 6: 1654. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11061654