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Energies 2016, 9(9), 751; doi:10.3390/en9090751

Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China?

1
School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 2 Beinong Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
2
Yunnan Electric Power Science Research Institute, No. 105, Yunda Western Road, Kunming 650217, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Francisco Martínez-Álvarez
Received: 7 June 2016 / Revised: 30 August 2016 / Accepted: 5 September 2016 / Published: 15 September 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Time Series Forecasting)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [1473 KB, uploaded 15 September 2016]   |  

Abstract

The steam coal price in China has been continuously decreasing since the second half of 2012. Constant low price of coal will accelerate the development of thermal power, cause more serious air pollution problems, and bring adverse influence to China’s energy reformation in the future. Therefore, analyzing the factors underlying the phenomenon of the decreasing steam coal price is significant. In this study, we first qualitatively analyze five main factors, namely, economy, supply, demand, substitutes, and port stocks. On the basis of the relationships among these five factors, we obtain the causality diagram and the system flow diagram of coal price for further quantitative research. Then, we conduct an empirical analysis using the system dynamics (SD) method and determine the simulated price from 2012 to 2017. Finally, we discuss the running results and come to the conclusion that the steam coal price will continue to decrease under the combined actions of the five main factors and it will not rebound in the near future. View Full-Text
Keywords: steam coal price; factor analysis; system dynamics (SD) method; supply-demand steam coal price; factor analysis; system dynamics (SD) method; supply-demand
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Guo, X.; Wei, Y.; Yuan, J. Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China? Energies 2016, 9, 751.

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