Statistical Analysis of Wave Climate Data Using Mixed Distributions and Extreme Wave Prediction
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Statistical Analysis of Measured Wave Data
3. Extreme Wave Estimation
4. Wave Height Distribution Modelling
4.1. Mixed-Distribution Model
4.2. Application of the Mixed-Distribution Model to Different Measured Wave Data
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Return Period | 25 Years | 50 Years |
---|---|---|
Significant wave height | 4.83 m | 4.96 m |
Maximum wave height | 9.24 m | 9.52 m |
Distribution | Parameters | R-Square | Root Mean Squared Error |
---|---|---|---|
Rayleigh | 0.703 | 0.382 | 0.248 |
Weibull | 0.801, 1.198 | 0.914 | 0.093 |
Lognormal | −0.682, 0.946 | 0.968 | 0.056 |
Distribution | Parameters | Weights | R-Square | Root Mean Squared Error |
---|---|---|---|---|
Lognormal-Rayleigh | −1.190, 0.755 0.994 | 0.585 0.415 | 0.994 | 0.025 |
Lognormal-Weibull | −1.461, 1.117 0.557, 0.755 | 0.348 0.652 | 0.986 | 0.037 |
Rayleigh-Weibull | 0.202 1.137, 1.588 | 0.352 0.648 | 0.991 | 0.029 |
Site | Latitude | Longitude | Average HS | Average Tp | Power Density | Measurement Period |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Site 1 | 61.00°N | 18.67°E | 0.88 m | 3.43 s | 2.44 kW/m | 2 June 2006–12 October 2014 |
Site 2 | 58.93°N | 19.17°E | 0.97 m | 3.68 s | 2.96 kW/m | 10 May 2001–12 October 2014 |
Site 3 | 57.60°N | 11.63°E | 0.74 m | 3.67 s | 1.83 kW/m | 1 October 1978–10 October 2014 |
Site 4 | 53.22°N | −9.27°E | 0.73 m | 5.04 s | 1.74 kW/m | 8 May 2008–25 February 2013 |
Distribution | Site | Parameters | Weights | R-Square | Root Mean Squared Error |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lognormal-Rayleigh | 1 | −0.619, 0.819 | 0.573 | 0.994 | 0.014 |
0.821 | 0.427 | ||||
2 | −0.379, 0.657 | 0.761 | 0.975 | 0.042 | |
0.996 | 0.239 | ||||
3 | −0.938, 0.521 | 0.548 | 0.997 | 0.017 | |
0.881 | 0.452 | ||||
4 | −0.687, 0.679 | 0.665 | 0.993 | 0.026 | |
0.754 | 0.335 | ||||
Lognormal-Weibull | 1 | −0.598, 1.073 | 0.446 | 0.996 | 0.010 |
0.792, 1.661 | 0.554 | ||||
2 | −0.374, 1.447 | 0.793 | 0.975 | 0.042 | |
0.664, 2.196 | 0.207 | ||||
3 | −0.959, 1.205 | 0.512 | 0.997 | 0.017 | |
0.504, 1.918 | 0.487 | ||||
4 | −0.687, 1.046 | 0.643 | 0.993 | 0.026 | |
0.675, 1.903 | 0.357 | ||||
Rayleigh-Weibull | 1 | 0.425 | 0.318 | 0.997 | 0.010 |
1.135, 1.538 | 0.682 | ||||
2 | 0.547 | 0.629 | 0.977 | 0.040 | |
1.557, 1.907 | 0.371 | ||||
3 | 0.332 | 0.506 | 0.963 | 0.064 | |
1.213, 1.945 | 0.494 | ||||
4 | 0.398 | 0.523 | 0.989 | 0.033 | |
1.126, 1.833 | 0.477 |
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Li, W.; Isberg, J.; Waters, R.; Engström, J.; Svensson, O.; Leijon, M. Statistical Analysis of Wave Climate Data Using Mixed Distributions and Extreme Wave Prediction. Energies 2016, 9, 396. https://doi.org/10.3390/en9060396
Li W, Isberg J, Waters R, Engström J, Svensson O, Leijon M. Statistical Analysis of Wave Climate Data Using Mixed Distributions and Extreme Wave Prediction. Energies. 2016; 9(6):396. https://doi.org/10.3390/en9060396
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Wei, Jan Isberg, Rafael Waters, Jens Engström, Olle Svensson, and Mats Leijon. 2016. "Statistical Analysis of Wave Climate Data Using Mixed Distributions and Extreme Wave Prediction" Energies 9, no. 6: 396. https://doi.org/10.3390/en9060396