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Energies 2016, 9(3), 200; doi:10.3390/en9030200

Solar Radiation Forecasting, Accounting for Daily Variability

1
Department of Industrial and Information Engineering, Second University of Naples via Roma n. 29, Aversa 81031, Italy
2
Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, University of Naples Federico II, Via Claudio, n. 21, Napoli 80125, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: John Ringwood and Anna Rita Di Fazio
Received: 30 October 2015 / Revised: 14 February 2016 / Accepted: 7 March 2016 / Published: 15 March 2016
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Abstract

Radiation forecast accounting for daily and instantaneous variability was pursued by means of a new bi-parametric statistical model that builds on a model previously proposed by the same authors. The statistical model is developed with direct reference to the Liu-Jordan clear sky theoretical expression but is not bound by a specific clear sky model; it accounts separately for the mean daily variability and for the variation of solar irradiance during the day by means of two corrective parameters. This new proposal allows for a better understanding of the physical phenomena and improves the effectiveness of statistical characterization and subsequent simulation of the introduced parameters to generate a synthetic solar irradiance time series. Furthermore, the analysis of the experimental distributions of the two parameters’ data was developed, obtaining opportune fittings by means of parametric analytical distributions or mixtures of more than one distribution. Finally, the model was further improved toward the inclusion of weather prediction information in the solar irradiance forecasting stage, from the perspective of overcoming the limitations of purely statistical approaches and implementing a new tool in the frame of solar irradiance prediction accounting for weather predictions over different time horizons. View Full-Text
Keywords: solar radiation; solar irradiance; daily variability; instantaneous variability; statistical methods; parametric distributions; time series generation; forecasting solar radiation; solar irradiance; daily variability; instantaneous variability; statistical methods; parametric distributions; time series generation; forecasting
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Langella, R.; Proto, D.; Testa, A. Solar Radiation Forecasting, Accounting for Daily Variability. Energies 2016, 9, 200.

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