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Energies 2015, 8(5), 3529-3555; doi:10.3390/en8053529

China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

1,2,* , 1
and
1
1
Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 619 Yonghua Street, Baoding 071003, Hebei, China
2
Philosophy and Social Science Research Base of Hebei Province, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, Hebei, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Vincenzo Dovì
Received: 20 January 2015 / Revised: 20 April 2015 / Accepted: 20 April 2015 / Published: 27 April 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Policy and Climate Change)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [2986 KB, uploaded 27 April 2015]   |  

Abstract

China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure. View Full-Text
Keywords: emission mitigation; AIM/CGE model; renewable energy; emission trading; carbon taxes emission mitigation; AIM/CGE model; renewable energy; emission trading; carbon taxes
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Li, W.; Li, H.; Sun, S. China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model. Energies 2015, 8, 3529-3555.

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