Energies 2013, 6(4), 2110-2129; doi:10.3390/en6042110

Assessing Tolerance-Based Robust Short-Term Load Forecasting in Buildings

Received: 18 January 2013; in revised form: 12 March 2013 / Accepted: 18 March 2013 / Published: 17 April 2013
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hybrid Advanced Techniques for Forecasting in Energy Sector)
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract: Short-term load forecasting (STLF) in buildings differs from its broader counterpart in that the load to be predicted does not seem to be stationary, seasonal and regular but, on the contrary, it may be subject to sudden changes and variations on its consumption behaviour. Classical STLF methods do not react fast enough to these perturbations (i.e., they are not robust) and the literature on building STLF has not yet explored this area. Hereby, we evaluate a well-known post-processing method (Learning Window Reinitialization) applied to two broadly-used STLF algorithms (Autoregressive Model and Support Vector Machines) in buildings to check their adaptability and robustness. We have tested the proposed method with real-world data and our results state that this methodology is especially suited for buildings with non-regular consumption profiles, as classical STLF methods are enough to model regular-profiled ones.
Keywords: short term load forecasting; artificial intelligence; statistical methods
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MDPI and ACS Style

Borges, C.E.; Penya, Y.K.; Fernández, I.; Prieto, J.; Bretos, O. Assessing Tolerance-Based Robust Short-Term Load Forecasting in Buildings. Energies 2013, 6, 2110-2129.

AMA Style

Borges CE, Penya YK, Fernández I, Prieto J, Bretos O. Assessing Tolerance-Based Robust Short-Term Load Forecasting in Buildings. Energies. 2013; 6(4):2110-2129.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Borges, Cruz E.; Penya, Yoseba K.; Fernández, Iván; Prieto, Juan; Bretos, Oscar. 2013. "Assessing Tolerance-Based Robust Short-Term Load Forecasting in Buildings." Energies 6, no. 4: 2110-2129.

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