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Mid-Term Energy Demand Forecasting by Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Models
Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Institute for International Energy Studies, Tehran, Iran
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Pardis Branch, Islamic Azad University, Pardis New City, Tehran, Iran
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 29 September 2011; in revised form: 8 November 2011 / Accepted: 7 December 2011 / Published: 22 December 2011
Abstract: This paper proposes a structure for long-term energy demand forecasting. The proposed hybrid approach, called HPLLNF, uses the local linear neuro-fuzzy (LLNF) model as the forecaster and utilizes the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter for extraction of the trend and cyclic components of the energy demand series. Besides, the sophisticated technique of mutual information (MI) is employed to select the most relevant input features with least possible redundancies for the forecast model. Each generated component by the HP filter is then modeled through an LLNF model. Starting from an optimal least square estimation, the local linear model tree (LOLIMOT) learning algorithm increases the complexity of the LLNF model as long as its performance is improved. The proposed HPLLNF model with MI-based input selection is applied to the problem of long-term energy forecasting in three different case studies, including forecasting of the gasoline, crude oil and natural gas demand over the next 12 months. The obtained forecasting results reveal the noteworthy performance of the proposed approach for long-term energy demand forecasting applications.
Keywords: local linear neuro-fuzzy (LLNF) model; Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter; HPLLNF; mutual information (MI); energy demand forecasting
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Iranmanesh, H.; Abdollahzade, M.; Miranian, A. Mid-Term Energy Demand Forecasting by Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Models. Energies 2012, 5, 1-21.
Iranmanesh H, Abdollahzade M, Miranian A. Mid-Term Energy Demand Forecasting by Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Models. Energies. 2012; 5(1):1-21.
Iranmanesh, Hossein; Abdollahzade, Majid; Miranian, Arash. 2012. "Mid-Term Energy Demand Forecasting by Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Models." Energies 5, no. 1: 1-21.