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Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines
Aalborg University and Risø-DTU, Sohngaardsholmsvej 57, DK-9000 Aalborg, Denmark
Aalborg University, Sohngaardsholmsvej 57, DK-9000 Aalborg, Denmark
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 4 January 2010 / Accepted: 29 January 2010 / Published: 23 February 2010
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Wind Energy
Abstract: Probabilistic design of wind turbines requires definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e.g., blades, tower, foundation; identification of important failure modes; careful stochastic modeling of the uncertain parameters; recommendations for target reliability levels and recommendation for consideration of system aspects. The uncertainties are characterized as aleatoric (physical uncertainty) or epistemic (statistical, measurement and model uncertainties). Methods for uncertainty modeling consistent with methods for estimating the reliability are described. It is described how uncertainties in wind turbine design related to computational models, statistical data from test specimens, results from a few full-scale tests and from prototype wind turbines can be accounted for using the Maximum Likelihood Method and a Bayesian approach. Assessment of the optimal reliability level by cost-benefit optimization is illustrated by an offshore wind turbine example. Uncertainty modeling is illustrated by an example where physical, statistical and model uncertainties are estimated.
Keywords: wind turbine; reliability; stochastic model; reliability level
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Cite This Article
MDPI and ACS Style
Sørensen, J.D.; Toft, H.S. Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines. Energies 2010, 3, 241-257.
Sørensen JD, Toft HS. Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines. Energies. 2010; 3(2):241-257.
Sørensen, John D.; Toft, Henrik S. 2010. "Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines." Energies 3, no. 2: 241-257.