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Energies 2010, 3(2), 241-257; doi:10.3390/en3020241

Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines

1,*  and 2
1 Aalborg University and Risø-DTU, Sohngaardsholmsvej 57, DK-9000 Aalborg, Denmark 2 Aalborg University, Sohngaardsholmsvej 57, DK-9000 Aalborg, Denmark
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 4 January 2010 / Accepted: 29 January 2010 / Published: 23 February 2010
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Wind Energy)
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Probabilistic design of wind turbines requires definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e.g., blades, tower, foundation; identification of important failure modes; careful stochastic modeling of the uncertain parameters; recommendations for target reliability levels and recommendation for consideration of system aspects. The uncertainties are characterized as aleatoric (physical uncertainty) or epistemic (statistical, measurement and model uncertainties). Methods for uncertainty modeling consistent with methods for estimating the reliability are described. It is described how uncertainties in wind turbine design related to computational models, statistical data from test specimens, results from a few full-scale tests and from prototype wind turbines can be accounted for using the Maximum Likelihood Method and a Bayesian approach. Assessment of the optimal reliability level by cost-benefit optimization is illustrated by an offshore wind turbine example. Uncertainty modeling is illustrated by an example where physical, statistical and model uncertainties are estimated.
Keywords: wind turbine; reliability; stochastic model; reliability level wind turbine; reliability; stochastic model; reliability level
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0).

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Sørensen, J.D.; Toft, H.S. Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines. Energies 2010, 3, 241-257.

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