Energies 2010, 3(2), 241-257; doi:10.3390/en3020241
Article

Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines

1,* email and 2email
Received: 4 January 2010; Accepted: 29 January 2010 / Published: 23 February 2010
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Wind Energy)
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract: Probabilistic design of wind turbines requires definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e.g., blades, tower, foundation; identification of important failure modes; careful stochastic modeling of the uncertain parameters; recommendations for target reliability levels and recommendation for consideration of system aspects. The uncertainties are characterized as aleatoric (physical uncertainty) or epistemic (statistical, measurement and model uncertainties). Methods for uncertainty modeling consistent with methods for estimating the reliability are described. It is described how uncertainties in wind turbine design related to computational models, statistical data from test specimens, results from a few full-scale tests and from prototype wind turbines can be accounted for using the Maximum Likelihood Method and a Bayesian approach. Assessment of the optimal reliability level by cost-benefit optimization is illustrated by an offshore wind turbine example. Uncertainty modeling is illustrated by an example where physical, statistical and model uncertainties are estimated.
Keywords: wind turbine; reliability; stochastic model; reliability level
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MDPI and ACS Style

Sørensen, J.D.; Toft, H.S. Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines. Energies 2010, 3, 241-257.

AMA Style

Sørensen JD, Toft HS. Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines. Energies. 2010; 3(2):241-257.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sørensen, John D.; Toft, Henrik S. 2010. "Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines." Energies 3, no. 2: 241-257.

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