Next Article in Journal
Value-Creation Potential from Multi-Market Trading for a Hydropower Producer
Previous Article in Journal
Characteristics of the Sliding Electric Contact of Pantograph/Contact Wire Systems in Electric Railways
Article Menu
Issue 1 (January) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Energies 2018, 11(1), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11010014

A Quantitative Risk Analysis Method for the High Hazard Mechanical System in Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry

1
School of Mechatronic Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China
2
Key Laboratory of Oil &Gas Equipment, Ministry of Education (Southwest Petroleum University), Chengdu 610500, China
3
Drilling & Production Engineering Technology Research Institute, Chuanqing Drilling Engineering Company Limited, CNPC, Guanghan 618000, China
4
School of Sciences, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 16 November 2017 / Revised: 16 December 2017 / Accepted: 19 December 2017 / Published: 22 December 2017
Full-Text   |   PDF [4794 KB, uploaded 22 December 2017]   |  

Abstract

The high hazard mechanical system (HHMS) has three characteristics in the petroleum and petrochemical industry (PPI): high risk, high cost, and high technology requirements. For a HHMS, part, component, and subsystem failures will result in varying degrees and various types of risk consequences, including unexpected downtime, production losses, economic costs, safety accidents, and environmental pollution. Thus, obtaining the quantitative risk level and distribution in a HHMS to control major risk accidents and ensure safe production is of vital importance. However, the structure of the HHMS is more complex than some other systems, making the quantitative risk analysis process more difficult. Additionally, a variety of uncertain risk data hinder the realization of quantitative risk analysis. A few quantitative risk analysis techniques and studies for HHMS exist, especially in the PPI. Therefore, a study on the quantitative risk analysis method for HHMS was completed to obtain the risk level and distribution of high-risk objects. Firstly, Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) was applied to address the uncertain risk data for the occurrence probability (OP) and consequence severity (CS) in the risk analysis process. Secondly, a fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) and a fuzzy event tree analysis (FETA) were used to achieve quantitative risk analysis and calculation. Thirdly, a fuzzy bow-tie model (FBTM) was established to obtain a quantitative risk assessment result according to the analysis results of the FFTA and FETA. Finally, the feasibility and practicability of the method were verified with a case study on the quantitative risk analysis of one reciprocating pump system (RPS). The quantitative risk analysis method for HHMS can provide more accurate and scientific data support for the development of Asset Integrity Management (AIM) systems in the PPI. View Full-Text
Keywords: quantitative risk analysis; high hazard mechanical system; fuzzy fault tree analysis; fuzzy event tree analysis; fuzzy bow-tie model; Fuzzy Set Theory quantitative risk analysis; high hazard mechanical system; fuzzy fault tree analysis; fuzzy event tree analysis; fuzzy bow-tie model; Fuzzy Set Theory
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Tang, Y.; Jing, J.; Zhang, Z.; Yang, Y. A Quantitative Risk Analysis Method for the High Hazard Mechanical System in Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry. Energies 2018, 11, 14.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Energies EISSN 1996-1073 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top