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Energies 2017, 10(2), 209; doi:10.3390/en10020209

Peaking China’s CO2 Emissions: Trends to 2030 and Mitigation Potential

1
National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100038, China
2
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3
World Resource Institute, Washington, DC 20002, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Wei-Hsin Chen
Received: 21 November 2016 / Revised: 16 January 2017 / Accepted: 18 January 2017 / Published: 11 February 2017
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [2405 KB, uploaded 11 February 2017]   |  

Abstract

China has submitted its nationally determined contribution to peak its energy-related emissions around 2030. To understand how China might develop its economy while controlling CO2 emissions, this study surveys a number of recent modeling scenarios that project the country’s economic growth, energy mix, and associated emissions until 2050. Our analysis suggests that China’s CO2 emissions will continue to grow until 2040 or 2050 and will approximately double their 2010 level without additional policy intervention. The alternative scenario, however, suggests that peaking CO2 emissions around 2030 requires the emission growth rate to be reduced by 2% below the reference level. This step would result in a plateau in China’s emissions from 2020 to 2030. This paper also proposed a deep de-carbonization pathway for China that is consistent with China’s goal of peaking emissions by around 2030, which can best be achieved through a combination of improvements in energy and carbon intensities. Our analysis also indicated that the potential for energy intensity decline will be limited over time. Thus, the peaking will be largely dependent on the share of non-fossil fuel energy in primary energy consumption. View Full-Text
Keywords: emission peaking; China; mitigation emission peaking; China; mitigation
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Liu, Q.; Gu, A.; Teng, F.; Song, R.; Chen, Y. Peaking China’s CO2 Emissions: Trends to 2030 and Mitigation Potential. Energies 2017, 10, 209.

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