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Energies 2017, 10(1), 44; doi:10.3390/en10010044

Hybrid Forecasting Approach Based on GRNN Neural Network and SVR Machine for Electricity Demand Forecasting

School of Mathematics & Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
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Academic Editor: Vincenzo Dovì
Received: 8 November 2016 / Revised: 19 December 2016 / Accepted: 25 December 2016 / Published: 3 January 2017
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Abstract

Accurate electric power demand forecasting plays a key role in electricity markets and power systems. The electric power demand is usually a non-linear problem due to various unknown reasons, which make it difficult to get accurate prediction by traditional methods. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel hybrid forecasting method for managing and scheduling the electricity power. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR, the proposed new method, combines ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), seasonal adjustment (S), cross validation (C), general regression neural network (GRNN) and support vector regression machine optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSVR). The main idea of EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is respectively to forecast waveform and trend component that hidden in demand series to substitute directly forecasting original electric demand. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is used to predict the one week ahead half-hour’s electricity demand in two data sets (New South Wales (NSW) and Victorian State (VIC) in Australia). Experimental results show that the new hybrid model outperforms the other three models in terms of forecasting accuracy and model robustness. View Full-Text
Keywords: electricity demand forecasting; ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD); generalized regression neural network (GRNN); support vector machine (SVM) electricity demand forecasting; ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD); generalized regression neural network (GRNN); support vector machine (SVM)
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Li, W.; Yang, X.; Li, H.; Su, L. Hybrid Forecasting Approach Based on GRNN Neural Network and SVR Machine for Electricity Demand Forecasting. Energies 2017, 10, 44.

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