Impact Measurement of COVID-19 Lockdown on China’s Electricity-Carbon Nexus
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- (1)
- as of writing, limited studies reported on the COVID-19-caused CO2 reductions for electric-power sector, as most of the studies focus on the overall airborne CO2 emissions or concentration and lack a decomposition or breakdown view;
- (2)
- current existing studies are mostly based on numerically predicted data without official validation which damages the reliability of their findings;
- (3)
- presented uncertainty analyses are conducted more as qualitative analyses and more in a qualitative manner thus lack adequate quantitative identification.
- (1)
- to perform an in-depth and extensive measurement of monthly carbon footprint changes of China’s electric-power generation and consumption in various dimensions to increase comprehending of their relationships with the lockdown measures;
- (2)
- to investigate the COVID-19 impact on China’s electricity-carbon nexus based on the official released statistical data, to avoid the unreliability from predictions and assumptions;
- (3)
- to integrate Monte-Carlo method to the systematic approach to quantitatively test the uncertainty propagation effects and the probability distributions of the results, thereby to improve the reliability and confidence level of the measurement and diagnostics;
- (4)
- last but not least, to identify issues of China’s official released statistical data in power sector.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Estimation of Monthly CO2 Emissions from Electric-Power Generation
2.2. Estimation of Monthly Consumptive-Electricity Related CO2 Emissions
2.3. A Case Study of Hubei Province
2.3.1. Statistics of Hubei Monthly Electricity Consumption
2.3.2. Calculation of Hubei Monthly Consumptive-Electricity Carbon Footprint
2.4. Test of Uncertainties
3. Results
3.1. Changes of Electricity-Generation CO2 Emissions
Months | Generation (108 kWh) | CO2 Emissions (Mt) | Change (%) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | 2020 | 2019 | 2020 | ||
January– April | 22,120 | 21,284 | 20,166 | 19,172 | −4.9 |
1256 | 1389 | 11 | 13 | 10.6 | |
16,472 | 15,680 | 19,767 | 18,816 | −4.8 | |
2990 | 2587 | 359 | 310 | −13.5 | |
1048 | 1087 | 15 | 15 | 3.7 | |
353 | 443 | 14 | 18 | 25.5 | |
January– February | 572 | 593 | 5 | 5 | 3.8 |
8427 | 7807 | 10,112 | 9368 | −7.4 | |
1352 | 1164 | 162 | 140 | −13.9 | |
484 | 473 | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | |
147 | 179 | 6 | 7 | 21.5 | |
10,982 | 10,216 | 10,292 | 9527 | −7.4 | |
March | 342 | 432 | 3 | 4 | 26.4 |
4160 | 3894 | 4991 | 4673 | −6.4 | |
809 | 761 | 97 | 91 | −5.9 | |
287 | 306 | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | |
101 | 129 | 4 | 5 | 27.3 | |
5698 | 5525 | 5100 | 4778 | −6.3 | |
April | 343 | 364 | 3 | 3 | 6.1 |
3886 | 3979 | 4663 | 4775 | 2.4 | |
829 | 662 | 99 | 79 | −20.1 | |
278 | 308 | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | |
104 | 135 | 4 | 6 | 29.6 |
3.2. Changes of Consumptive-Electricity Carbon Footprints
Sectors | Generation (108 kWh) | CO2 Emissions | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Nationwide | −5.9% | −10.1% | −4.2% | 0.7% |
Primary Sector | 5.2% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 8.8% |
Secondary Sector | −10.2% | −14.2% | −3.5% | 1.3% |
Tertiary Sector | 3.1% | −10.6% | −19.2% | −7.9% |
Household | 1.9% | 2.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
Generation | - | −7.4% | −6.3% | 1.9% |
3.3. Results of Hubei Case
3.3.1. Changes of Hubei Monthly Consumptive-Electricity CFs
3.3.2. Primary Sector of Hubei
3.3.3. Secondary Sector of Hubei
3.3.4. Tertiary Sector of Hubei
3.3.5. Residential Sector of Hubei
3.4. Uncertainties
4. Discussion and Conclusions
4.1. Implications
- providing potential action plans, such as curbing large-scale electricity production activities, at national and provincial levels;
- switching ways of some of the business behavior (e.g., from offline to online);
- avoiding inconsistency within the governmental statistical data, as our study shows that some of the consumptions exceeded the electricity generation of the same period, which could result from a lack of sufficient communication and cross-check between different parties providing the two sets of data, and thus, more efforts should be spent on data validation;
- revising governmental statistical database;
- making up the missing provincial electricity consumption data, as data of some provinces are not available on their governmental statistical websites, which renders a more detailed analysis challenging;
- updating statistical data in a more timely and accountable manner.
4.2. Limitations and Future Study
- This study only focuses on the most COVID-19 affected period from January to April 2020, and a thorough study on the post-COVID-19 impacts is beyond our work, and this should be further investigated in our future work. This would reveal whether the impacts are temporary or the effects are long-term.
- The reliability of our study results needs to be further improved, since the data quality should be improved as well, as discussed in the above section.
- The lock-down measure conduction levels differed from province to province, and this should be taken into account in our future study.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Regional Power Grids | Covered Provincial Areas |
---|---|
North China | Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, West Inner Mongolia |
Northeast China | Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, East Inner Mongolia |
East China | Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian |
Central China | Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan |
Northwest | Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang |
South China | Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hainan |
Grids | North | Northeast | Northwest | Central | East | South |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon Intensity (gCO2/kWh) | 1066 | 1014 | 833 | 751 | 836 | 569 |
Sectors | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Change | Carbon Footprint (Mt) | % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Provincial | 198.97 | 184.23 | −14.74 | −1.24 | −7.41 |
Primary Sector | 1.56 | 1.34 | −0.22 | −18.91 | −14.34 |
Secondary Sector | 119.46 | 109.08 | −10.38 | −0.88 | −8.69 |
Industry | 115.79 | 106.71 | −9.08 | −0.77 | −7.84 |
Manufacturing of Oil, Coal, and Other Fuels | 2.41 | - | - | - | - |
Manufacturing of Chemical Materials and Products | 15.98 | - | - | - | - |
Manufacturing of Non-metallic Products | 12.02 | - | - | - | - |
Ferrous Metal Refining & Rolling | 15.83 | - | - | - | - |
Nonferrous Metal Refining & Rolling | 5.71 | - | - | - | - |
Electric and Thermal Power Production and Supply | 21.67 | - | - | - | - |
Construction | 4.22 | 3.37 | −0.85 | −71.91 | −20.20 |
Tertiary Sector | 37.11 | 37.58 | 0.47 | 39.77 | 1.27 |
Transportation, Storage and Logistics | 5.79 | 5.56 | −0.23 | −19.28 | −3.95 |
Information communication, Software and Information Technological Service | 1.64 | 1.84 | 0.20 | 16.58 | 11.96 |
Wholesales and Retails | 7.56 | 7.98 | 0.42 | 35.81 | 5.61 |
Accommodation and Catering | 2.92 | 3.04 | 0.12 | 9.95 | 4.03 |
Finance | 0.49 | 0.55 | 0.06 | 4.87 | 11.70 |
Real Estate | 4.84 | 5.15 | 0.31 | 26.38 | 6.46 |
Rental and Business Service | 0.72 | 0.65 | −0.07 | −5.80 | −9.55 |
Public Service and Management | 11.87 | 11.07 | −0.80 | −67.62 | −6.75 |
Urban and Rural Residential Households | 40.84 | 36.23 | −4.60 | −388.60 | −11.27 |
Urban Residential Households | 28.65 | 24.52 | −4.13 | −348.65 | −14.42 |
Rural Residential Households | 12.19 | 11.71 | −0.47 | −39.95 | −3.88 |
Sectors | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Change | CF (Mt) | % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Provincial | 158.86 | 103.82 | −55.04 | −4.65 | −34.65 |
Primary Sector | 1.50 | 1.43 | −0.07 | −5.90 | −4.67 |
Secondary Sector | 75.41 | 19.68 | −55.73 | −4.70 | −73.90 |
Industry | 73.17 | 18.27 | −54.90 | −4.63 | −75.03 |
Manufacturing of Oil, Coal, and Other Fuels | 2.04 | - | - | - | - |
Manufacturing of Chemical Materials and Products | 12.53 | - | - | - | - |
Manufacturing of Non-metallic Products | 5.08 | - | - | - | - |
Ferrous Metal Refining & Rolling | 12.71 | - | - | - | - |
Nonferrous Metal Refining & Rolling | 5.05 | - | - | - | - |
Electric and Thermal Power Production and Supply | 8.57 | - | - | - | - |
Construction | 2.59 | 1.94 | −0.66 | −55.49 | −25.34 |
Tertiary Sector | 34.06 | 29.78 | −4.28 | −361.59 | −12.58 |
Transportation, Storage and Logistics | 5.77 | 4.74 | −1.03 | −86.57 | −17.79 |
Information communication, Software and Information Technological Service | 1.64 | 1.87 | 0.23 | 19.63 | 14.17 |
Wholesales and Retails | 7.24 | 5.67 | −1.56 | −132.03 | −21.61 |
Accommodation and Catering | 2.97 | 2.27 | −0.70 | −59.26 | −23.63 |
Finance | 0.56 | 0.53 | −0.03 | −2.18 | −4.61 |
Real Estate | 4.34 | 3.74 | −0.60 | −50.78 | −13.87 |
Rental and Business Service | 0.61 | 0.49 | −0.11 | −9.65 | −18.85 |
Public Service and Management | 9.90 | 9.25 | −0.65 | −54.88 | −6.57 |
Urban and Rural Residential Households | 47.90 | 52.93 | 5.04 | 425.29 | 10.52 |
Urban Residential Households | 32.65 | 33.64 | 0.98 | 83.08 | 3.01 |
Rural Residential Households | 15.24 | 19.29 | 4.05 | 342.12 | 26.60 |
Sectors | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Change | CF (Mt) | % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Provincial | 169.63 | 121.67 | −47.95 | −4.05 | −28.27 |
Primary Sector | 1.31 | 1.11 | −0.20 | −16.83 | −15.24 |
Secondary Sector | 91.35 | 65.95 | −25.40 | −2.14 | −27.81 |
Industry | 88.99 | 65.23 | −23.76 | −2.01 | −26.70 |
Manufacturing of Oil, Coal, and Other Fuels | 1.82 | 1.92 | 0.10 | 8.33 | 5.42 |
Manufacturing of Chemical Materials and Products | 11.63 | 10.58 | −1.05 | −88.63 | −9.03 |
Manufacturing of Non-metallic Products | 8.35 | 2.07 | −6.28 | −0.53 | −75.17 |
Ferrous Metal Refining & Rolling | 14.22 | 12.94 | −1.28 | −108.31 | −9.02 |
Nonferrous Metal Refining & Rolling | 5.14 | 4.10 | −1.05 | −88.23 | −20.33 |
Electric and Thermal Power Production and Supply | 13.07 | 18.83 | 5.76 | 486.35 | 44.09 |
Construction | 2.82 | 0.83 | −1.99 | −168.36 | −70.70 |
Tertiary Sector | 29.87 | 15.85 | −14.02 | −1.18 | −46.93 |
Transportation, Storage and Logistics | 5.02 | 2.36 | −2.66 | −224.77 | −53.05 |
Information communication, Software and Information Technological Service | 1.51 | 1.67 | 0.16 | 13.82 | 10.87 |
Wholesales and Retails | 6.07 | 2.31 | −3.77 | −318.13 | −62.05 |
Accommodation and Catering | 2.29 | 0.91 | −1.38 | −116.29 | −60.12 |
Finance | 0.48 | 0.35 | −0.13 | −10.95 | −26.81 |
Real Estate | 4.00 | 1.92 | −2.08 | −175.79 | −52.04 |
Rental and Business Service | 0.54 | 0.23 | −0.31 | −25.84 | −56.95 |
Public Service and Management | 8.88 | 5.41 | −3.47 | −292.80 | −39.07 |
Urban and Rural Residential Households | 47.09 | 38.76 | −8.33 | −703.11 | −17.69 |
Urban Residential Households | 29.65 | 21.75 | −7.89 | −0.67 | −26.62 |
Rural Residential Households | 17.45 | 17.01 | −0.44 | −37.09 | −2.52 |
Sectors | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Change | CF (Mt) | % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Provincial | 161.03 | 152.31 | −8.72 | −0.74 | −5.42 |
Primary Sector | 1.47 | 1.44 | −0.02 | −2.09 | −1.69 |
Secondary Sector | 103.91 | 98.49 | −5.42 | −0.46 | −5.22 |
Industry | 101.28 | 97.30 | −3.99 | −0.34 | −3.94 |
Manufacturing of Oil, Coal, and Other Fuels | 2.00 | 1.83 | −0.17 | −14.55 | −8.60 |
Manufacturing of Chemical Materials and Products | 13.19 | 15.92 | 2.74 | 230.91 | 20.75 |
Manufacturing of Non-metallic Products | 12.20 | 8.50 | −3.69 | −311.53 | −30.27 |
Ferrous Metal Refining & Rolling | 16.09 | 15.36 | −0.73 | −61.88 | −4.56 |
Nonferrous Metal Refining & Rolling | 4.89 | 4.40 | −0.49 | −41.08 | −9.96 |
Electric and Thermal Power Production and Supply | 12.60 | 14.80 | 2.20 | 185.43 | 17.43 |
Construction | 3.13 | 1.67 | −1.46 | −123.17 | −46.57 |
Tertiary Sector | 27.32 | 19.78 | −7.54 | −636.52 | −27.61 |
Transportation, Storage and Logistics | 5.27 | 3.53 | −1.74 | −147.05 | −33.07 |
Information communication, Software and Information Technological Service | 1.60 | 1.82 | 0.22 | 18.80 | 13.91 |
Wholesales and Retails | 5.61 | 3.47 | −2.14 | −180.71 | −38.19 |
Accommodation and Catering | 1.81 | 0.97 | −0.84 | −70.83 | −46.32 |
Finance | 0.42 | 0.40 | −0.02 | −1.63 | −4.63 |
Real Estate | 3.40 | 2.20 | −1.20 | −101.63 | −35.38 |
Rental and Business Service | 0.45 | 0.35 | −0.10 | −8.33 | −21.92 |
Public Service and Management | 7.43 | 5.62 | −1.80 | −152.27 | −24.29 |
Urban and Rural Residential Households | 28.34 | 32.60 | 4.26 | 359.85 | 15.05 |
Urban Residential Households | 18.34 | 18.11 | −0.23 | −19.38 | −1.25 |
Rural Residential Households | 10.00 | 14.49 | 4.49 | 379.22 | 44.93 |
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Zhao, M.; Niu, Y.; Tian, L.; Liu, Y.; Zhai, Q. Impact Measurement of COVID-19 Lockdown on China’s Electricity-Carbon Nexus. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 9736. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189736
Zhao M, Niu Y, Tian L, Liu Y, Zhai Q. Impact Measurement of COVID-19 Lockdown on China’s Electricity-Carbon Nexus. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(18):9736. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189736
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhao, Mingyue, Yuqing Niu, Lei Tian, Yizhi Liu, and Qiang Zhai. 2021. "Impact Measurement of COVID-19 Lockdown on China’s Electricity-Carbon Nexus" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 18: 9736. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189736