Spatiotemporal Distribution of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Guangdong Province, China and Potential Predictors, 2009–2012
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Surveillance Data of HFMD
2.3. Potential Predictors Data
2.4. Statistical Methods
2.4.1. Bayesian Spatiotemporal Model
2.4.2. Geographical Detectors
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Statistics
3.2. Model Selection
3.3. Spatial Distribution
3.4. Temporal Distribution
3.5. Spatiotemporal Interaction Patterns
3.6. Potential Predictors
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Covariates | Minimum | 2.5% Percentile | Median | 97.5% Percentile | Maximum |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average relative humidity (%) | 54.10 | 59.25 | 76.53 | 85.83 | 91.56 |
Average temperature (°C) | 4.79 | 10.47 | 23.01 | 29.18 | 29.65 |
Average rainfall (mm) | 0 | 1.66 | 98.76 | 410.11 | 645.50 |
Sunshine duration (hour) | 18.91 | 38.05 | 149.18 | 253.48 | 303.47 |
Average wind speed (m/s) | 1.25 | 1.53 | 2.10 | 3.38 | 5.33 |
Average GDP (yuan) | 5717 | 9981 | 26,370 | 110,421 | 123,247 |
Covariates | VIF | Covariates | VIF |
---|---|---|---|
Average relative humidity (%) | 2.305 | Sunshine duration (hour) | 3.126 |
Average temperature (°C) | 3.827 | Average wind speed (m/s) | 1.091 |
Average rainfall (mm) | 2.129 | Average GDP (yuan) | 1.025 |
Model | Component | DIC | |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Non-spatiotemporal model | 1,083,638.0 | |
2 | Spatial model | 422,115.3 | |
3 | Temporal model | 816,474.6 | |
4 | Spatiotemporal model | 202,885.9 | |
5 | Spatiotemporal interaction model | 45,036.5 |
Data | q | p | Data | q | p | Data | q | p | Data | q | p |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009-01 | 0.122 | 0.856 | 2010-01 | 0.179 | 0.663 | 2011-01 | 0.145 | 0.771 | 2012-01 | 0.321 | 0.013 * |
2009-02 | 0.292 | 0.095 | 2010-02 | 0.296 | 0.221 | 2011-02 | 0.238 | 0.302 | 2011-02 | 0.191 | 0.507 |
2009-03 | 0.336 | 0.022 * | 2010-03 | 0.366 | 0.058 | 2011-03 | 0.089 | 0.980 | 2011-03 | 0.409 | <0.001 * |
2009-04 | 0.301 | 0.038 * | 2010-04 | 0.251 | 0.184 | 2011-04 | 0.215 | 0.534 | 2011-04 | 0.379 | 0.004 * |
2009-05 | 0.229 | 0.257 | 2010-05 | 0.190 | 0.507 | 2011-05 | 0.292 | 0.207 | 2011-05 | 0.465 | <0.001 * |
2009-06 | 0.265 | 0.362 | 2010-06 | 0.315 | 0.038 * | 2011-06 | 0.274 | 0.112 | 2011-06 | 0.341 | 0.019 * |
2009-07 | 0.287 | 0.202 | 2010-07 | 0.403 | 0.002 * | 2011-07 | 0.498 | <0.001 * | 2011-07 | 0.325 | 0.033 * |
2009-08 | 0.402 | 0.013 * | 2010-08 | 0.458 | <0.001 * | 2011-08 | 0.299 | 0.069 | 2011-08 | 0.319 | 0.037 * |
2009-09 | 0.254 | 0.198 | 2010-09 | 0.221 | 0.541 | 2011-09 | 0.260 | 0.203 | 2011-09 | 0.573 | <0.001 * |
2009-10 | 0.246 | 0.243 | 2010-10 | 0.281 | 0.265 | 2011-10 | 0.259 | 0.267 | 2011-10 | 0.290 | 0.101 |
2009-11 | 0.266 | 0.264 | 2010-11 | 0.179 | 0.710 | 2011-11 | 0.153 | 0.763 | 2011-11 | 0.158 | 0.715 |
2009-12 | 0.129 | 0.916 | 2010-12 | 0.174 | 0.589 | 2011-12 | 0.239 | 0.149 | 2011-12 | 0.264 | 0.096 |
Covariates | Unstandardized Coefficients (95% CI) | Standardized Coefficients (95% CI) |
---|---|---|
Intercept | 0.054 (0.021, 0.138) | 0.397 (0.359, 0.439) |
Average relative humidity (%) | 1.015 (1.006, 1.024) | 1.102 (1.042, 1.166) |
Average temperature (°C) | 1.045 (1.021, 1.069) | 1.291 (1.128, 1.476) |
Average rainfall (cm) | 1.004 (1.001, 1.008) | 1.050 (1.008, 1.094) |
Sunshine duration (10 h) | 0.997 (0.985, 1.009) | 0.982 (0.915, 1.054) |
Average wind speed (dm/s) | 0.998 (0.990, 1.007) | 0.991 (0.951, 1.032) |
Average GDP (1000 yuan) | 0.999 (0.994, 1.003) | 0.961 (0.835, 1.105) |
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Wang, Y.; Lai, Y.; Du, Z.; Zhang, W.; Feng, C.; Li, R.; Hao, Y. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Guangdong Province, China and Potential Predictors, 2009–2012. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 1191. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16071191
Wang Y, Lai Y, Du Z, Zhang W, Feng C, Li R, Hao Y. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Guangdong Province, China and Potential Predictors, 2009–2012. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2019; 16(7):1191. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16071191
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Yijing, Yingsi Lai, Zhicheng Du, Wangjian Zhang, Chenyang Feng, Ruixue Li, and Yuantao Hao. 2019. "Spatiotemporal Distribution of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Guangdong Province, China and Potential Predictors, 2009–2012" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 7: 1191. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16071191