Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China
AbstractBacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery. View Full-Text
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Xu, C.; Xiao, G.; Wang, J.; Zhang, X.; Liang, J. Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 47.
Xu C, Xiao G, Wang J, Zhang X, Liang J. Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2018; 15(1):47.Chicago/Turabian Style
Xu, Chengdong; Xiao, Gexin; Wang, Jinfeng; Zhang, Xiangxue; Liang, Jinjun. 2018. "Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China." Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 15, no. 1: 47.
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