Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area
Department of Physics and Mathematics, Universidad Tecnológica de la Mixteca, 69000 Huajuapan de León, Oax., Mexico
Department of Statistics, Colegio de Postgraduados, Campus Montecillo, Texcoco, 56230 Montecillo, Mex., Mexico
Faculty of Engineering, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, 78280 San Luis Potosí, S.L.P., Mexico
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Kim Natasha Dirks
Received: 22 May 2017 / Revised: 23 June 2017 / Accepted: 3 July 2017 / Published: 6 July 2017
We implemented a spatial model for analysing
maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995–2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the
maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model’s performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the
maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the
maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of
maxima presenting levels above 1000
(return period: 25 yr) was observed in the northwestern region of the study area.
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MDPI and ACS Style
Aguirre-Salado, A.I.; Vaquera-Huerta, H.; Aguirre-Salado, C.A.; Reyes-Mora, S.; Olvera-Cervantes, A.D.; Lancho-Romero, G.A.; Soubervielle-Montalvo, C. Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 734.
Aguirre-Salado AI, Vaquera-Huerta H, Aguirre-Salado CA, Reyes-Mora S, Olvera-Cervantes AD, Lancho-Romero GA, Soubervielle-Montalvo C. Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2017; 14(7):734.
Aguirre-Salado, Alejandro I.; Vaquera-Huerta, Humberto; Aguirre-Salado, Carlos A.; Reyes-Mora, Silvia; Olvera-Cervantes, Ana D.; Lancho-Romero, Guillermo A.; Soubervielle-Montalvo, Carlos. 2017. "Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area." Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 14, no. 7: 734.
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