Epidemiological Features and Forecast Model Analysis for the Morbidity of Influenza in Ningbo, China, 2006–2014
AbstractThis study aimed to identify circulating influenza virus strains and vulnerable population groups and investigate the distribution and seasonality of influenza viruses in Ningbo, China. Then, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for prediction was established. Influenza surveillance data for 2006–2014 were obtained for cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) (n = 129,528) from the municipal Centers for Disease Control and virus surveillance systems of Ningbo, China. The ARIMA model was proposed to predict the expected morbidity cases from January 2015 to December 2015. Of the 13,294 specimens, influenza virus was detected in 1148 (8.64%) samples, including 951 (82.84%) influenza type A and 197 (17.16%) influenza type B viruses; the influenza virus isolation rate was strongly correlated with the rate of ILI during the overall study period (r = 0.20, p < 0.05). The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0)12 model could be used to predict the ILI incidence in Ningbo. The seasonal pattern of influenza activity in Ningbo tended to peak during the rainy season and winter. Given those results, the model we established could effectively predict the trend of influenza-related morbidity, providing a methodological basis for future influenza monitoring and control strategies in the study area. View Full-Text
- Supplementary File 1:
PDF-Document (PDF, 257 KB)
Scifeed alert for new publicationsNever miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
- Get alerts for new papers matching your research
- Find out the new papers from selected authors
- Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
- Define your Scifeed now
Wang, C.; Li, Y.; Feng, W.; Liu, K.; Zhang, S.; Hu, F.; Jiao, S.; Lao, X.; Ni, H.; Xu, G. Epidemiological Features and Forecast Model Analysis for the Morbidity of Influenza in Ningbo, China, 2006–2014. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 559.
Wang C, Li Y, Feng W, Liu K, Zhang S, Hu F, Jiao S, Lao X, Ni H, Xu G. Epidemiological Features and Forecast Model Analysis for the Morbidity of Influenza in Ningbo, China, 2006–2014. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2017; 14(6):559.Chicago/Turabian Style
Wang, Chunli; Li, Yongdong; Feng, Wei; Liu, Kui; Zhang, Shu; Hu, Fengjiao; Jiao, Suli; Lao, Xuying; Ni, Hongxia; Xu, Guozhang. 2017. "Epidemiological Features and Forecast Model Analysis for the Morbidity of Influenza in Ningbo, China, 2006–2014." Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 14, no. 6: 559.
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.