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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13(9), 867; doi:10.3390/ijerph13090867

Meteorological Factors for Dengue Fever Control and Prevention in South China

1,2,3,4,5,†
,
5,6,†
,
1,2,3,4,7,†
,
1,2,3,4
,
7
,
1,2,3,4
,
1,2,3,4
and
1,2,3,4,*
1
Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
2
Health Information Research Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
3
Guangdong Key Laboratory of Medicine, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
4
Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
5
Division of Public Health Laboratory Sciences, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
6
Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
7
Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Kim Natasha Dirks
Received: 5 May 2016 / Revised: 22 August 2016 / Accepted: 23 August 2016 / Published: 31 August 2016
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [1302 KB, uploaded 31 August 2016]   |  

Abstract

Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Guangzhou and has been circulating for decades, causing significant economic loss. DF prevention mainly relies on mosquito control and change in lifestyle. However, alert fatigue may partially limit the success of these countermeasures. This study investigated the delayed effect of meteorological factors, as well as the relationships between five climatic variables and the risk for DF by boosted regression trees (BRT) over the period of 2005–2011, to determine the best timing and strategy for adapting such preventive measures. The most important meteorological factor was daily average temperature. We used BRT to investigate the lagged relationship between dengue clinical burden and climatic variables, with the 58 and 62 day lag models attaining the largest area under the curve. The climatic factors presented similar patterns between these two lag models, which can be used as references for DF prevention in the early stage. Our results facilitate the development of the Mosquito Breeding Risk Index for early warning systems. The availability of meteorological data and modeling methods enables the extension of the application to other vector-borne diseases endemic in tropical and subtropical countries. View Full-Text
Keywords: dengue fever; boosted regression trees; meteorological effects dengue fever; boosted regression trees; meteorological effects
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MDPI and ACS Style

Gu, H.; Leung, R.K.-K.; Jing, Q.; Zhang, W.; Yang, Z.; Lu, J.; Hao, Y.; Zhang, D. Meteorological Factors for Dengue Fever Control and Prevention in South China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 867.

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