Evaluation of the AnnAGNPS Model for Predicting Runoff and Nutrient Export in a Typical Small Watershed in the Hilly Region of Taihu Lake
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. AnnAGNPS Model Description
2.2. Study Area
Classification [37] | Hydrological | K Factor Value | Depth (mm) | Content (%) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clay | Silt | Sand | Very Fine Sand | ||||
TAUA | B | 0.04 | 0–16 | 15.12 | 41.98 | 42.9 | 3.01 |
16–29 | 17.41 | 37.69 | 44.9 | 3.11 | |||
29–56 | 16.84 | 40.26 | 42.9 | 3.01 | |||
THSA | C | 0.04 | 0–14 | 19.22 | 53.06 | 27.72 | 1.97 |
14–24 | 12.9 | 59.38 | 27.72 | 1.97 | |||
24–36 | 12.73 | 57.3 | 29.97 | 2.12 | |||
36–100 | 13.26 | 31.21 | 55.53 | 3.50 |
2.3. Data Acquisition
2.3.1. Climate Data
2.3.2. Topographic Data
2.3.3. Soil Data
2.3.4. Land Use Data
Land Use | Date | Operation | Observation |
---|---|---|---|
Rice | 21 May | Seeding | Combined seeding machine |
12 June | Fertilization | Carbamide | |
10 July | Fertilization | Ammonium bicarbonate | |
10 August | Fertilization | Compound fertilizer | |
25 August | Weeding | Triadimefon/Diniconazole | |
3 September | Fertilization | Compound fertilizer | |
18 October | Grain harvesting | 5000–6000kg·ha−1 | |
25 October | Tillage | Moldboard | |
Rape | 1 November | Seeding | Combined seeding machine |
10 December | Fertilization | Carbamide | |
5 February | Fertilization | Carbamide | |
10 March | Fertilization | Carbamide | |
11 March | Fertilization | Ammonium bicarbonate | |
10 May | Grain harvesting | 2200–3000kg·ha−1 | |
18 May | Tillage | Moldboard |
2.3.5. Hydrologic and Nutrient Loading Data
2.4. Parameter Sensitivity Analysis
2.4.1. Runoff Parameter
2.4.2. Nutrients parameters
2.5. Evaluation of Model Performance
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Runoff Calibration
Land Use | Curve Numbers for Hydrologic Soil Groups | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Values | Final Values | |||||||
A | B | C | D | A | B | C | D | |
Bare land | 65 | 75 | 82 | 95 | 65 | 75 | 82 | 95 |
Residential area | 55 | 68 | 79 | 85 | 66 | 82 | 95 | 99 |
Agricultural | 60 | 72 | 80 | 85 | 78 | 86 | 96 | 99 |
Forest | 48 | 60 | 73 | 80 | 58 | 78 | 95 | 96 |
Grass land | 42 | 69 | 79 | 87 | 50 | 83 | 95 | 98 |
Items | Calibration | Validation | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R2 | E | E′ | RMSE | CRM | R2 | E | E′ | RMSE | CRM | |
Annual scale | ||||||||||
Run off | 0.93(0.76) * | 0.81(−5.32) | 0.65(−2.23) | 45.09(257.83) | 0.05(0.63) | 0.88(0.82) | 0.86(−8.00) | 0.65(−2.2) | 26.95(213.62) | −0.02(0.58) |
Monthly scale | ||||||||||
Run off | 0.86(0.55) | 0.59(−3.21) | 0.39(−1.33) | 11.24(21.58) | 0.04(0.62) | 0.84(0.75) | 0.65(−2.64) | 0.42(−1.75) | 10.65(20.31) | 0.02(0.59) |
0.87(0.78) | 0.81(−1.63) | 0.62(−0.55) | 8.71(15.16) | 0(0.45) | ||||||
TN | 0.91(0.77) | 0.86(0.33) | 0.71(0.12) | 100(180.25) | 0.22(0.87) | 0.92(0.85) | 0.71(0.29) | 0.58(0.08) | 130.85(210.34) | 0.42(0.92) |
TP | 0.66(0.38) | 0.37(−1.05) | 0.46(0.10) | 1.67(3.15) | 0.14(0.92) | 0.62(0.28) | 0.18(−1.26) | 0.37(−0.55) | 1.18(2.67) | 0.19(0.88) |
3.2. Runoff Validation
3.3. Nutrient
3.3.1. Results of the Parameter Sensitivity Analysis
Input Parameters | Sensitivity Index for TN | Sensitivity Index for TP |
---|---|---|
Residue mass ratio | 0.04 | 0.39 |
Root mass | −0.09 | −0.10 |
Canopy cover | −0.26 | −0.32 |
Fertilizer rate | 0.94 | 0.30 |
Fertilizer depth | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fertilizer inorganic | 0.25 | 0.26 |
Fertilizer organic | 0.69 | 0.04 |
3.3.2. Nutrient Calibration
3.3.3. Nutrient Validation
4. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Luo, C.; Li, Z.; Li, H.; Chen, X. Evaluation of the AnnAGNPS Model for Predicting Runoff and Nutrient Export in a Typical Small Watershed in the Hilly Region of Taihu Lake. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 10955-10973. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120910955
Luo C, Li Z, Li H, Chen X. Evaluation of the AnnAGNPS Model for Predicting Runoff and Nutrient Export in a Typical Small Watershed in the Hilly Region of Taihu Lake. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2015; 12(9):10955-10973. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120910955
Chicago/Turabian StyleLuo, Chuan, Zhaofu Li, Hengpeng Li, and Xiaomin Chen. 2015. "Evaluation of the AnnAGNPS Model for Predicting Runoff and Nutrient Export in a Typical Small Watershed in the Hilly Region of Taihu Lake" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12, no. 9: 10955-10973. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120910955