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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(9), 10955-10973; doi:10.3390/ijerph120910955

Evaluation of the AnnAGNPS Model for Predicting Runoff and Nutrient Export in a Typical Small Watershed in the Hilly Region of Taihu Lake

1
College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, No. 1, Weigang Road, Xuanwu District, Nanjing 210095,Jiangsu, China
2
Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 73, Beijing East Road, Nanjing 210095,Jiangsu, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Miklas Scholz
Received: 3 July 2015 / Revised: 26 August 2015 / Accepted: 28 August 2015 / Published: 2 September 2015
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [1784 KB, uploaded 2 September 2015]   |  

Abstract

The application of hydrological and water quality models is an efficient approach to better understand the processes of environmental deterioration. This study evaluated the ability of the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS) model to predict runoff, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loading in a typical small watershed of a hilly region near Taihu Lake, China. Runoff was calibrated and validated at both an annual and monthly scale, and parameter sensitivity analysis was performed for TN and TP before the two water quality components were calibrated. The results showed that the model satisfactorily simulated runoff at annual and monthly scales, both during calibration and validation processes. Additionally, results of parameter sensitivity analysis showed that the parameters Fertilizer rate, Fertilizer organic, Canopy cover and Fertilizer inorganic were more sensitive to TN output. In terms of TP, the parameters Residue mass ratio, Fertilizer rate, Fertilizer inorganic and Canopy cover were the most sensitive. Based on these sensitive parameters, calibration was performed. TN loading produced satisfactory results for both the calibration and validation processes, whereas the performance of TP loading was slightly poor. The simulation results showed that AnnAGNPS has the potential to be used as a valuable tool for the planning and management of watersheds. View Full-Text
Keywords: AnnAGNPS model; nitrogen; parameter sensitivity analysis; phosphorus; runoff AnnAGNPS model; nitrogen; parameter sensitivity analysis; phosphorus; runoff
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Luo, C.; Li, Z.; Li, H.; Chen, X. Evaluation of the AnnAGNPS Model for Predicting Runoff and Nutrient Export in a Typical Small Watershed in the Hilly Region of Taihu Lake. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 10955-10973.

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