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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(7), 7254-7273; doi:10.3390/ijerph120707254

Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea

1
Forecast and Control Division, Nakdong River Flood Control Office, Busan 604-851, Korea
2
Columbia Water Center, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
3
Department of Hydro Science and Engineering, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do 411-712, Korea
4
Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Dept. of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, TX 77843, USA
5
Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 402-751, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Paul B. Tchounwou
Received: 16 March 2015 / Revised: 17 June 2015 / Accepted: 18 June 2015 / Published: 29 June 2015
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Abstract

Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered. View Full-Text
Keywords: scrub typhus; ANN; meteorological variables scrub typhus; ANN; meteorological variables
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Kwak, J.; Kim, S.; Kim, G.; Singh, V.P.; Hong, S.; Kim, H.S. Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 7254-7273.

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