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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11(6), 6388-6399; doi:10.3390/ijerph110606388

Evaluating the Impact of Environmental Temperature on Global Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Outbreaks in Domestic Poultry

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Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
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Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China
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Laboratory for Spatial Analysis and Modeling, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
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Laboratory of Geographic Information and Spatial Analysis, Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts and Science, Queen's University, 99 University Avenue, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada
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Department of Epidemiology and Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, 451 Smyth Road, Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5, Canada
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Department of Microbiology and Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 16 March 2014 / Revised: 6 May 2014 / Accepted: 8 May 2014 / Published: 19 June 2014
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Abstract

The emergence and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A virus subtype H5N1 in Asia, Europe and Africa has had an enormously socioeconomic impact and presents an important threat to human health because of its efficient animal-to-human transmission. Many factors contribute to the occurrence and transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus, but the role of environmental temperature remains poorly understood. Based on an approach of integrating a Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model and a Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model, we examined the specific impact of environmental temperature on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry around the globe during the period from 1 December 2003 to 31 December 2009. The results showed that higher environmental temperature was a significant risk factor for earlier occurrence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry, especially for a temperature of 25 °C. Its impact varied with epidemic waves (EWs), and the magnitude of the impact tended to increase over EWs. View Full-Text
Keywords: avian influenza; highly pathogenic avian influenza; H5N1; environmental temperature; spatial analysis; Bayesian statistics avian influenza; highly pathogenic avian influenza; H5N1; environmental temperature; spatial analysis; Bayesian statistics
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MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, Z.; Chen, D.; Chen, Y.; Wang, B.; Hu, Y.; Gao, J.; Sun, L.; Li, R.; Xiong, C. Evaluating the Impact of Environmental Temperature on Global Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Outbreaks in Domestic Poultry. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 6388-6399.

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