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Time Trends of Italian Former Smokers 1980–2009 and 2010–2030 Projections Using a Bayesian Age Period Cohort Model
Cancer Prevention and Research Institute, via delle Oblate 2, Florence 50139, Italy
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 9 October 2013; in revised form: 25 November 2013 / Accepted: 26 November 2013 / Published: 19 December 2013
Abstract: This study aimed to describe past time trends of the prevalence of former smokers in Italy and to estimate prevalence projections using a Bayesian approach. An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis has been carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on the prevalence of former smokers during 1980–2009. A Bayesian APC model with an autoregressive structure for the age, period and cohort parameters has been used to estimate future trends. Results showed that awareness of harm from smoking occurred at younger ages with each advancing cohort, and that women were more likely to attempt to stop smoking during pregnancies and breastfeeding, whereas men attempted to quit only when smoking-related diseases became evident. Projections of future trend recorded a further increase in the number of former smokers in future decades, showing an estimate of the “end of smoking” around years 2060 and 2055 in men and women, respectively. The application of the APC analysis to study the prevalence of former smokers turned out to be a useful method for the evaluation of past smoking trends, reflecting the effects of tobacco control policies on time and generations, and to make projections of future trend.
Keywords: smoking prevalence; former smokers; APC model; Bayesian analysis; Italy
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MDPI and ACS Style
Carreras, G.; Gorini, G. Time Trends of Italian Former Smokers 1980–2009 and 2010–2030 Projections Using a Bayesian Age Period Cohort Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 1-12.
Carreras G, Gorini G. Time Trends of Italian Former Smokers 1980–2009 and 2010–2030 Projections Using a Bayesian Age Period Cohort Model. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2014; 11(1):1-12.
Carreras, Giulia; Gorini, Giuseppe. 2014. "Time Trends of Italian Former Smokers 1980–2009 and 2010–2030 Projections Using a Bayesian Age Period Cohort Model." Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 11, no. 1: 1-12.