Next Article in Journal
Using Undergraduate Researchers to Build Vector and West Nile Virus Surveillance Capacity
Previous Article in Journal
Developing a Semi-Quantitative Occupational Risk Prediction Model for Chemical Exposures and Its Application to a National Chemical Exposure Databank
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2013, 10(8), 3172-3191; doi:10.3390/ijerph10083172
Article

Linking Climate to Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (L. major) in Pre-Saharan North Africa

1,* , 2
, 3
, 4
, 5
, 1,6
, 7
, 1
, 8
, 9
, 10
, 11
, 12
 and 2
Received: 3 May 2013; in revised form: 12 July 2013 / Accepted: 13 July 2013 / Published: 31 July 2013
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [550 KB, updated 19 June 2014; original version uploaded 19 June 2014]   |   Browse Figures
Abstract: Shifts in surface climate may have changed the dynamic of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) in the pre-Saharan zones of North Africa. Caused by Leishmania major, this form multiplies in the body of rodents serving as reservoirs of the disease. The parasite is then transmitted to human hosts by the bite of a Phlebotomine sand fly (Diptera: Psychodidae) that was previously fed by biting an infected reservoir. We examine the seasonal and interannual dynamics of the incidence of this ZCL as a function of surface climate indicators in two regions covering a large area of the semi-arid Pre-Saharan North Africa. Results suggest that in this area, changes in climate may have initiated a trophic cascade that resulted in an increase in ZCL incidence. We find the correlation between the rainy season precipitation and the same year Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to be strong for both regions while the number of cases of ZCL incidence lags the precipitation and NDVI by 2 years. The zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis seasonal dynamic appears to be controlled by minimum temperatures and presents a 2-month lag between the reported infection date and the presumed date when the infection actually occurred. The decadal increase in the number of ZCL occurrence in the region suggests that changes in climate increased minimum temperatures sufficiently and created conditions suitable for endemicity that did not previously exist. We also find that temperatures above a critical range suppress ZCL incidence by limiting the vector’s reproductive activity.
Keywords: cutaneous leishmaniasis; surface climate indicators; incidence; climate; NDVI; North Africa cutaneous leishmaniasis; surface climate indicators; incidence; climate; NDVI; North Africa
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Export to BibTeX |
EndNote


MDPI and ACS Style

Bounoua, L.; Kahime, K.; Houti, L.; Blakey, T.; Ebi, K.L.; Zhang, P.; Imhoff, M.L.; Thome, K.J.; Dudek, C.; Sahabi, S.A.; Messouli, M.; Makhlouf, B.; Laamrani, A.E.; Boumezzough, A. Linking Climate to Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (L. major) in Pre-Saharan North Africa. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2013, 10, 3172-3191.

AMA Style

Bounoua L, Kahime K, Houti L, Blakey T, Ebi KL, Zhang P, Imhoff ML, Thome KJ, Dudek C, Sahabi SA, Messouli M, Makhlouf B, Laamrani AE, Boumezzough A. Linking Climate to Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (L. major) in Pre-Saharan North Africa. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2013; 10(8):3172-3191.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bounoua, Lahouari; Kahime, Kholoud; Houti, Leila; Blakey, Tara; Ebi, Kristie L.; Zhang, Ping; Imhoff, Marc L.; Thome, Kurtis J.; Dudek, Claire; Sahabi, Salah A.; Messouli, Mohammed; Makhlouf, Baghdad; Laamrani, Abderrahmane E.; Boumezzough, Ali. 2013. "Linking Climate to Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (L. major) in Pre-Saharan North Africa." Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 10, no. 8: 3172-3191.


Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health EISSN 1660-4601 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert