Analysis of the Contribution Rate of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity to Runoff Variation in Nenjiang Basin, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Data Source and Processing
2.2. Data Analysis
- (1)
- The Mann-Kendall (M-K) non-parametric test analyzes data trends by calculating the sums of ranks of time series and comparing the relative order of magnitude [6]. We utilized the M-K method to carry out a change-point analysis of mean values under different types of runoff from the monitoring stations in the Nenjiang basin. Results from this analysis enabled us to discuss characteristics of basin runoff evolution.
- (2)
- The statistical abrupt change test method: numerous abrupt change detection methods have been used with time series data [7,8], among which Pettitt’s abrupt change detection method is a non-parametric test method widely used for detecting change points in a hydrological series [9]. In this study, we adopted Pettitt’s method to detect abrupt change phenomena in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff in long-term time series data in the Nenjiang watershed. This method not only identifies the location and amount of change points; it can also determine whether the change points are statistically significant.
- (3)
- The hydrological sensitivity analysis method: this method is used to analyze the percentage change of annual runoff with changes in annual mean precipitation and potential evapotranspiration [11]. This method can also be used to distinguish the contributions of climate change and anthropogenic activities to runoff change.
3. Results
3.1. Abrupt Change Analysis of Annual Runoff Series
3.2. The Rate of Contribution of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities to Runoff
4. Conclusions and Discussion
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Factor | Mean (mm/a) | Change Rate (mm/10a) | Mann-Kendall Test | Pettitt Abrupt Change Detection | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
U | Significance | ||||
Precipitation | 506.8 | −5.2 | −1.12 | — | — |
Evapotranspiration | 948.8 | 0.9 | 0.01 | — | — |
Runoff | 167.3 | −7.8 | −2.26 | 0.99 | 1974, 1981 |
Region | Period | ∆P | ∆ET0 | ∆Q | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mm/a | % | mm/a | % | mm/a | % | ||
Upstream | 1975–1989 | −20.7 | −4.4 | 28.9 | 4.3 | −17.7 | −9.6 |
1990–1999 | 16.5 | 3.5 | 52.1 | 7.7 | −4 | −2.2 | |
2000–2015 | −66.8 | −12.9 | 68.8 | 9.8 | −58.4 | −30.9 | |
Mid-stream | 1975–1989 | −4.5 | −1.0 | 38.1 | 5.1 | −10.5 | −5.7 |
1990–1999 | 34.6 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 22.8 | 13.6 | |
2000–2015 | −36.3 | −7.8 | 63.6 | 7.9 | −51 | −29.8 | |
Downstream | 1975–1989 | 39.9 | 8.5 | 17.3 | 1.7 | −16.3 | −12.2 |
1990–1999 | 13.5 | 2.9 | 15.3 | 1.5 | 13.9 | 10.4 | |
2000–2015 | −77.8 | −16.3 | 15.8 | 1.5 | −28.1 | −21.1 |
Region | Period | Precipitation | ET0 | ∆Qtotal | ∆Qclimate | ∆Qhuman | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mm | mm | mm | mm | % | mm | % | ||
Upstream | 1956–1974 | 475.2 | 676.6 | — | — | — | — | — |
1975–1989 | 454.5 | 705.5 | −17.7 | −16.1 | 90.8 | −1.6 | 9.2 | |
1990–1999 | 491.7 | 728.7 | −4 | −3.3 | 82.8 | −0.7 | 17.2 | |
2000–2015 | 465.0 | 816.2 | −52.8 | −43.9 | 72.4 | −16.7 | 27.6 | |
1975–2015 | 470.4 | 750.1 | −28.4 | −21.1 | 82.0 | −6.3 | 18.0 | |
Mid-stream | 1956–1974 | 472.1 | 749.6 | — | — | — | — | — |
1975–1989 | 467.6 | 787.7 | −10.5 | −8.6 | 82.3 | −1.9 | 17.7 | |
1990–1999 | 506.7 | 757.4 | 22.8 | 17.9 | 78.3 | 4.9 | 22.8 | |
2000–2015 | 457.0 | 827.3 | −55.9 | −31.2 | 58.3 | −21.4 | 41.7 | |
1975–2015 | 477.1 | 798.3 | −14.8 | −10.7 | 74.1 | −3.1 | 25.9 | |
Downstream | 1956–1974 | 468.2 | 1002.3 | — | — | — | — | — |
1975–1989 | 508.1 | 1019.6 | −16.3 | −13.3 | 81.8 | −3 | 18.2 | |
1990–1999 | 481.7 | 987 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 61.1 | 5.4 | 38.9 | |
2000–2015 | 448.6 | 1031.5 | −32.5 | 22.8 | 67.8 | −9.3 | 32.2 | |
1975–2015 | 479.5 | 1025.8 | −12.8 | −9.3 | 71.1 | −4.2 | 28.9 |
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Dong, L.; Zhang, G.; Cheng, X.; Wang, Y. Analysis of the Contribution Rate of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity to Runoff Variation in Nenjiang Basin, China. Hydrology 2017, 4, 58. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology4040058
Dong L, Zhang G, Cheng X, Wang Y. Analysis of the Contribution Rate of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity to Runoff Variation in Nenjiang Basin, China. Hydrology. 2017; 4(4):58. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology4040058
Chicago/Turabian StyleDong, Liqin, Guangxin Zhang, Xiping Cheng, and Yanfang Wang. 2017. "Analysis of the Contribution Rate of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity to Runoff Variation in Nenjiang Basin, China" Hydrology 4, no. 4: 58. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology4040058