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Hydrology 2017, 4(1), 14; doi:10.3390/hydrology4010014

Change in Future Rainfall Characteristics in the Mekrou Catchment (Benin), from an Ensemble of 3 RCMs (MPI-REMO, DMI-HIRHAM5 and SMHI-RCA4)

1
International Chair in Mathematical Physics and Applications (ICMPA), University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Cotonou 072 B.P 50, Benin
2
Laboratory of Applied Hydrology, University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Cotonou 01 BP 4521, Benin
3
West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), GRP Climate Change and Water Resources, University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Abomey-Calavi BP 2008, Benin
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Luca Brocca
Received: 17 January 2017 / Revised: 6 February 2017 / Accepted: 13 February 2017 / Published: 21 February 2017
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Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of climate change on several characteristics of rainfall in the Mekrou catchment for the twenty-first century. To this end, a multi-model ensemble based on regional climate model experiments considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is used. The results indicate a wider range of precipitation uncertainty (roughly between −10% and 10%), a decrease in the number of wet days (about 10%), an increase (about 10%) of the total intensity of precipitation for very wet days, and changes in the length of the dry spell period, as well as the onset and end of the rainy season. The maximum rainfall amounts of consecutive 24 h, 48 h and 72 h will experience increases of about 50% of the reference period. This change in rate compared to the reference period may cause an exacerbation of extreme events (droughts and floods) in the Mekrou basin, especially at the end of the century and under the RCP8.5 scenario. To cope with the challenges posed by the projected climate change for the Mekrou watershed, strong governmental policies are needed to help design response options. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; precipitation; future projections; trends; extreme events climate change; precipitation; future projections; trends; extreme events
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Obada, E.; Alamou, E.A.; Zandagba, J.; Chabi, A.; Afouda, A. Change in Future Rainfall Characteristics in the Mekrou Catchment (Benin), from an Ensemble of 3 RCMs (MPI-REMO, DMI-HIRHAM5 and SMHI-RCA4). Hydrology 2017, 4, 14.

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